Food club

[Mayetra]

3 hours ago, Secre said:

I did this for another member here and have tweaked it for today. Hope it helps:

The opener reference is to the odds when that days betting starts. I often don't see those as I'm long asleep, but most of the betters think that the opening bets are the best indicator, and the opening odds are what Garet bases his bets off. The odds then change throughout the day according to how many people bet on different pirates, so you can get more or less np than when the bets opened.

The numbers are referencing the odds for the pirates in a set arena; so 2/3/13/13 means you have a 2:1, a 3:1, and two 13:1's. 

Positive arena - an arena that opens with one strong 2:1 pirate, so a relatively sure bet. A strong positive is one 2:1 with three 13:1's surrounding it (2/13/13/13) or other high numbers. A weak positive is a 2:1 with 4:1 by it's side. So Shipwreck is a very strong positive (2/13/13/13) and Harpoon is a medium positive (2/7/9/13). Garet periodically counts a 2/3/13/13 arena as a positive and discounts the 3:1 opener and it's been his undoing more times than I can count!! 

Boosted arenas are the less strong arenas that you add onto your positive arena bets. Shipwreck is a good example today with (2/3/4/13). So you have your two safeties and then boost the arena. As the 13 is exceptionally unlikely to win, Garet has removed that from the bet today and boosted two arenas instead. But essentially you boost the entire arena, so providing your positives win, you should make np.

Chases are high odds bets with a small change of winning. The base bet is just the 2:1's from the positives together. Usually you will get either a chase or a base bet, depending on which is more profitable/likely due to limited bet numbers. Today Garet has chosen to chase Puffo in Lagoon over the base bet as that sweet 40:1 profit chance was too good to miss, I guess. Base bets are more likely to be used when you need a lot of safeties, so you are only boosting one arena which may not be profitable if all the 2:1's come in. A base bet on a two positive day would add 4:1 to your winnings in that case, which will shunt up the winnings from 8:10 to 12:10 if all the 2:1's come in.

Safeties are the best you place around your boosted arena in case of an upset. So all the boosts are taken out leaving you just with your positives and you put bets on the most likely to win. Usually you only cover single upsets (one of the positives not having a 2:1 winner). Most busts therefore come from double or even triple upsets or a 13:1 winning in a positive arena. Today Garet has three safeties; he's covered the 7:1 and 9:1 in Harpoon and one of the 13:1's in Shipwreck. With only ten bets, it's difficult to cover multiple upsets, which is why they are standardly not covered. 

 

 

So the Reddit feed has been sucky.  When I was betting using Sir Hatter and Hugo's guide, I won some money.  I tried following over that Reddit (using the same person as suggested) and I've either lost or broke even.  

This article is excellent but I'm still not getting some of it.  It's not you, it's me.  This is math based to some extent, which I struggle with, and some of this just isn't clicking with me.  I have some learning challenges (Dysgrapia is one which causes me to drop suffixes when I'm typing and I swap letters when writing even though I see them correctly) so sometimes I can see an explanation, I read and understand it but I don't get the "lightbulb" that makes everything slide into place.  I know we have a Food Club discussion thread and I wonder if I should continue the discussion over there.  I feel like I'm betting blindly and picking bad bets because I don't understand things.  I found another guide that I'm going to read but I'm still not getting everything. I'm stubborn so I'll just keep reading and trying until I get it.

Also, is Garet an example or someone you are following? It would help me to look at his page/post while I reread your explanation. (Which I've done 3 times already and will probably continue to do.

Thank you for taking the time to try and explain.

[Secre]

1 hour ago, Mayetra said:

So the Reddit feed has been sucky.  When I was betting using Sir Hatter and Hugo's guide, I won some money.  I tried following over that Reddit (using the same person as suggested) and I've either lost or broke even.  

This article is excellent but I'm still not getting some of it.  It's not you, it's me.  This is math based to some extent, which I struggle with, and some of this just isn't clicking with me.  I have some learning challenges (Dysgrapia is one which causes me to drop suffixes when I'm typing and I swap letters when writing even though I see them correctly) so sometimes I can see an explanation, I read and understand it but I don't get the "lightbulb" that makes everything slide into place.  I know we have a Food Club discussion thread and I wonder if I should continue the discussion over there.  I feel like I'm betting blindly and picking bad bets because I don't understand things.  I found another guide that I'm going to read but I'm still not getting everything. I'm stubborn so I'll just keep reading and trying until I get it.

Also, is Garet an example or someone you are following? It would help me to look at his page/post while I reread your explanation. (Which I've done 3 times already and will probably continue to do.

Thank you for taking the time to try and explain.

Sorry - I meant to link in Garet's page, got distracted by some really tedious work training and forgot to add before I posted. It's here: http://www.neopets.com/~boochi_target

I tend to use his bets as my base and tweak where I feel inclined... which has unpredictable results at best I fear! One of the things I will say is that consistency is best - so find one betting page you are comfortable with and follow them. Garet gets some busts, but he's usually quite a safe and reliable better. If you follow his bets religiously, you will make np in the long term. We had a really bad two weeks or so this month though.

It took me a while to pick up what the various terms meant and I'll be the first to admit that maths is not my strong suit, so whilst I've tried to be clear in my explanations,, I may not always have succeeded!

Garet also tends to put some thoughts up each day as to why he's betting the way he is, which often make it easier for me to see if there's something I'm not keen on. The 2/3/13/13 arena's are a good example. Garet will often treat them as a positive arena, whereas I tend to knock them off as I've noted a pattern that he busts more often with them. That's down to personal preference though.

I'll see if one of the mods would be willing to shift the last few posts in this section into the Food Club thread.

[Duma]

My bets for today are these:

The odds are these:

I had 20:10 yesterday so let's hope I get some profit today as well.

[Secre]

Today is an example of that dreaded 2/3/13/13 arena in Hidden Cove, which Garet has treated as a positive. I've therefore knocked all the Cove bets off and treated today as a two positive arena day. As there was no point in doing a mini base with only two positives or an extra safety, I've also boosted the 2:1 and (now) 4:1 in Cove and used the final spare bet to cover all four 2:1's. I'm thinking now I should have added a 13:1 safety on Fairfax or Peg Leg though.

I came in at 16:10 yesterday with Garet, but I still think that Puffo chase was worth the chance!

[Secre]

Well, that's bleeding typical - I used the pseudo positive as a positive yesterday and boosted the 2/3/13/13 arena as I don't trust that 3:1... so both the real positive and the pseudo positive had non 2:1 winners and I had a bust to Garet's 18:10. Bah!

Today I'm with Garet, although I've removed the mini-bet of just Goob and gone for a Peg Leg chase. I'm not too fussed at the loss of the extra 2:10 and the chase is 26:10 if it comes through. Slim chances, but hey ho. 

[Angeló]

Today is round 8000

But it's very underwhelming with just one positive

Going with Garet again as he managed to flip the results around and came up on top again after a miserable start of the month

[Secre]

1 hour ago, Angeló said:

Today is round 8000

But it's very underwhelming with just one positive

Going with Garet again as he managed to flip the results around and came up on top again after a miserable start of the month

Yep, after a really poor start of the month, Garet has pulled it around. My only change today has been the mini-base as the Peg Leg chase was too irresistible.

[Secre]

Thank you Garet! I certainly can't complain at this particular win!

[Angeló]

@secre some people reported 96:10 and 160:10 wins yesterday

Still for someone like me who makes no effort whatsoever I'm very happy with the 80:10

[Secre]

3 minutes ago, Angeló said:

@secre some people reported 96:10 and 160:10 wins yesterday

Still for someone like me who makes no effort whatsoever I'm very happy with the 80:10

Oh my! I was thinking of trying for a trophy run but in that case it might not be worth it!! And yep, I'm more than content with my 80:1. I am nearly back to my previous banking point after buying that Tyrannian Yooyu for 3.6 million and several other things that I really could have waited for - baby paint brushes, Zombie Paint Brush etc!!

[Angeló]

Some people hit a 4 Mil NP gambit on the 1st so this month looks tough if you're going for a trophy (unless you're one of those people)

My account isn't old enough for me to make a trophy spot .. it depends on the last week i guess 

[Sciurus carolinensis]

I've only just started with the food club since the end of last month. Yesterday's 80:10 was the best I've had. Maybe I should pick another page to follow. It's proven to be a decent money maker so far, and I wish I'd started sooner.

[Duma]

I "only" had 28:10 yesterday but I play safe mostly. I still make about half a million to a million a week on average so not complaining at all!

My set for today is this one: https://neofood.club/#round=8014&b=hebpubbafkbdafwbepfygejfv

Edit:

Got a nice 20:10 out of yesterdays. Today I'm not creating my own since I found a set I like:

https://neofood.club/#round=8015&b=yqtxnystxxypxxaopbxadpawa

[Secre]

I've gone with Garet today again. It's high risk, but with an 80:10 sitting in my current winnings, I can afford to take a high risk day. I like the fact that he's been able to cover the most likely double upset as well. 

20 hours ago, Angeló said:

Some people hit a 4 Mil NP gambit on the 1st so this month looks tough if you're going for a trophy (unless you're one of those people)

My account isn't old enough for me to make a trophy spot .. it depends on the last week i guess 

I've got a decent chance of a trophy run with my aged account. But I always forget to hold on the last days of the month, so I never get anywhere!

[Duma]

Got 12:10 yesterday but today is just horrible so I'm skipping today.

Sunday Edit:

For today I've got this set: https://neofood.club/#round=8017&b=eoamudoahuaokayalachanacr

Monday Edit:

They failed us big time!

Today I'm planning on just playing safe:

https://neofood.club/#round=8018&b=acfanarpenahpcnadpaxackao

[Secre]

I skipped Saturday as the only positive was weak as heck and Garet got 18;10. I followed him yesterday and got a bust. Bah! I've gone Team Garet today and just swapped his Stuff-a-Roo safety so I can cover both Tailhook and Ned (the 2:1 and 3:1 in Treasure).

[jellysundae]

Meanwhile, I FINALLY FCed again - after some motivation from a fellow ninja, and using another ninja's bets...

Collect Winnings
Round	Bet Info	Amount	Odds	Winnings
8017	Treasure Island: Ol' Stripey Hidden Cove: Puffo the Waister	4728 NP	91:1	430248 NP
Total Winnings				430248 NP

This is Serg, he is awesome. http://www.neopets.com/~_Rayita_49

He also does not trust these pirates at all xD

Quote

Yesterday's results:
91:10, yay! My mistrust in Gooblah and Dan was justified.

 

[Duma]

Had a 12:10 with my safe set yesterday and made another safe set today (chances are it will be another 12:10 but profit is profit):

https://neofood.club/#round=8019&b=vkeiavuepayaekavadaakabaa

[Secre]

20:10 yesterday... which is strange as Garet got 16:10 and the only thing I changed was the Stuff safety to add Ned and neither of them won!!

Single positive day, another Garet day. If it's a 2:1 sweep then 12:10 is likely option, but hopefully at least one of the 3:1's or 4:1's in the boosters will come through.

[Duma]

As predicted I had a 12:10 with my set yesterday. Profit!

Today I'm betting this: https://neofood.club/#round=8020&b=vduftbcufydaufdbdkfbeauke

[Secre]

Also 12:10 yesterday. Again, I've gone with Garet today, but I've removed the Blackbeard bet and instead put the 2:1's from Shipwreck, Lagoon and Cove in as an 8:1 bet so that if it's another 2:1 sweep I should get 20:10 rather than 12:10.

[jellysundae]

I'm such a dunce, I don't know how you guys calculate your win ratio.

I think Serg got a smidge more than 12:10 yesterday, as that's what he got the day before, and I won 10k or so more from yesterday's bets.

Looking at his results for April, it's been a terrible month so far!

This month results:
2021/04/01 (8000): 0:10
2021/04/02 (8001): 0:10
2021/04/03 (8002): 0:10
2021/04/04 (8003): 0:10
2021/04/05 (8004): 0:10
2021/04/06 (8005): 0:10
2021/04/07 (8006): 20:10
2021/04/08 (8007): 0:10
2021/04/09 (8008): 0:10
2021/04/10 (8009): 12:10
2021/04/11 (8010): 0:10
2021/04/12 (8011): 0:10
2021/04/13 (8012): 0:10
2021/04/14 (8013): 80:10
2021/04/15 (8014): 28:10
2021/04/16 (8015): 48:10
2021/04/17 (8016): 0:10
2021/04/18 (8017): 91:10
2021/04/19 (8018): 12:10

EDIT:

Serg has explained to me now, and it is what a wee functional part of my brain suspected; just add up the totals of the pirates who won... Yay working brain cell. *pats self on head*

He got 14:10 yesterday, something else I can now work out for myself. x'D

[Duma]

That's a 291:190 so still about 1.5 times what you put in! Not great but certainly not bad either!

[Secre]

22 hours ago, jellysundae said:

I'm such a dunce, I don't know how you guys calculate your win ratio.

I think Serg got a smidge more than 12:10 yesterday, as that's what he got the day before, and I won 10k or so more from yesterday's bets.

Looking at his results for April, it's been a terrible month so far!

This month results:
2021/04/01 (8000): 0:10
2021/04/02 (8001): 0:10
2021/04/03 (8002): 0:10
2021/04/04 (8003): 0:10
2021/04/05 (8004): 0:10
2021/04/06 (8005): 0:10
2021/04/07 (8006): 20:10
2021/04/08 (8007): 0:10
2021/04/09 (8008): 0:10
2021/04/10 (8009): 12:10
2021/04/11 (8010): 0:10
2021/04/12 (8011): 0:10
2021/04/13 (8012): 0:10
2021/04/14 (8013): 80:10
2021/04/15 (8014): 28:10
2021/04/16 (8015): 48:10
2021/04/17 (8016): 0:10
2021/04/18 (8017): 91:10
2021/04/19 (8018): 12:10

EDIT:

Serg has explained to me now, and it is what a wee functional part of my brain suspected; just add up the totals of the pirates who won... Yay working brain cell. *pats self on head*

He got 14:10 yesterday, something else I can now work out for myself. x'D

Yep it's just adding the first numbers together and because you did 10 bets of ?/1, the second number is 10. It looks like Serg had a very bad start to the month, didn't he!!

My gamble paid off yesterday as the 2:1's came through in Shipwreck, Lagoon and Cove so I got my extra 8:1 bet, giving me a total of 22:10.

I'm with Garet and no messing around today!

[Angeló]

1 hour ago, Secre said:

My gamble paid off yesterday as the 2:1's came through in Shipwreck, Lagoon and Cove so I got my extra 8:1 bet, giving me a total of 22:10.

I'm with Garet and no messing around today!

I went to collect last night and I had no winning bets .. Garet is saying he won 14:10 , which means one thing : I forgot to bet ! But where did my NP go then !? I know I withdrew the daily amount I usually place on my bets .. I must've kept buying stuff I don't need  

Bets are in for today ...