Clumsy rockyroad1 Posted October 6, 2013 Author Share Posted October 6, 2013 14:10 yesterday. Goob x Fairfax Round 5287: Goob x (Squire, Fair) Young x Fran Goob x Young x (Shipwreck, Hidden Cove-Stuff) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcpet Posted October 25, 2013 Share Posted October 25, 2013 Bets for Round 5306: Scurvy x (Hidden Cove, Shipwreck minus Stuff, HH minus Fran) Would have liked to cover Fran, but that would take 11 bets. Remember to hold if you're going for a trophy run! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
siniri Posted October 26, 2013 Share Posted October 26, 2013 (edited) I had to leave for work at 4:45am. I withdrew my NP to make my bets (which I had planned out last evening)... but somehow failed to actually make the bets. There goes my 16:10 winnings... *sigh* EDIT: Made some unconventional choices today. The "base" pirates aren't all that stellar (the base bet only has ~24% chance of success), and the safety pirates had gained so much arbitrage from their odds lengthening. Really, I want the highest chance of winning *something* possible, since I'm so close to getting in trophy contention. I ignored some of the highest EV bets of double- and triple- upsets because their odds were so low, but I didn't do any booster bets -- just the base bet, the non 13:1 safeties from all 3 arenas, and the most likely double safety (Fair x Buck x Fran). If there's a single (non 13:1) upset, I'll be stoked. If the double upset I bet on takes it, I'll be thrilled. If the base bet wins, meh; most of my bets would have paid off better in the long run, and at least I'll have gotten 8:10, still keeping me in contention for a trophy. If there's a triple upset (or any other double upset), I'll be kicking myself for not following EV for these bets (but my overall chance of winning something would have been very small, so it wasn't the right bet today; still, it was really hard to ignore that 378:120 difference in paying:true odds for the triple safety/2646 NP bet with a potential payout of 1M NP). Edited November 8, 2013 by siniri Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rachany Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 Hello! I feel like this discussion is kind of dead, but hopefully I can revive it? I'm a newbie to the Food Club and I've read the TDN guide to it, but it just seems so confusing :S. I was wondering what kinds of bets you guys are placing, and if you have any pointers for a novice like me? Thanks :) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clumsy rockyroad1 Posted December 30, 2013 Author Share Posted December 30, 2013 This thread finally lived again! If you need some help, look at this petpage: http://www.neopets.com/~Jawsnapper0991 Some pointers: If you are really confused, copy the bets of some people like: http://www.neopets.com/~MyFoodClubBets. You'll eventually get a feel on it. You can only make 10 bets (you can combine multiple pirates in 1 bet). Use 2:1 pirates on arenas that have a positive value. To calculate for the value, treal 2:1's as 50, 3:1's as 33, 4:1's as 25, etc. If the value is less than 100, the arena has a positive value, if not, the arena has a negative value. The pirates on the negative arenas are to be used as "boosters". This means that you will bet the 2:1 pirates with the positive value with the "boosters". Usually, I use 2:1 to 12:1 (not 13:1) pirates as boosters, but if you feel the 13:1 would have a good chance of winning, you can use that pirate as a booster. Round 5372 bets: Gooblah x Scurvy x Lucky x (Federismo, Ned, Stuff, Orvinn, Buck, Sir Edmund) Gooblah x Scurvy x (Admiral, Lucky) Gooblah x Lucky x Bonnie Lucky x Scurvy x Franchisco Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jellysundae Posted July 8, 2017 Share Posted July 8, 2017 Look, an actual Food Club topic, I knew I'd find one if I dug deep enough! My thinking here is if there's some kind of conversation going on about it, my brain might actually let me place bets more often! I have more chance of doing something, any thing, if my brain has an outside prompt, otherwise it just tends to sit and look at me, so let's get chatting! lol. Whilst looking for this topic I see someone refer to Garet as garet_jaxx , so I went and stalked his user look-up He's got some cool pets. He said something today that made me realise he's my age, when I'd been assuming up to now that he was in college maybe. He said this: Quote CALGON, TAKE ME AWAY! (Yeah, um, for the majority of you: ask your parents (or *gulp* grandparents) what that previous statement means.) I didn't know what that meant, I thought it was going to be some film character that means nothing to me. Turns out it's a vintage US advertising slogan, lol. Calgon is sold here in the UK but only the anti-limescale tablets for washing machines, so when I see an ad showing a lady reclining in a Calgon bath that's what I imagine she's bathing in. So yeah it would seem Garet's likely a contemporary of mine which is kinda cool. I have every intent of placing bets today, once I have enough NP. We'll see if that actually happens though! I'm doing good in my Food Club odyssey so far though. Bet History Bets Placed Bet Total Win Total Difference 1597 2422038 NP 5153948 NP 2731910 Angeló, Scoobert_Doo and kayahtik 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kayahtik Posted July 8, 2017 Share Posted July 8, 2017 I'm glad you're planning to be more often Jelly! I try to bet every day if at all possible--you certainly lose on some days, but the wins more than make up for it, and it's good to be in the habit because you don't want to miss the one day that's a really big win--like just a few days ago when Garet got us 100:10! Today his win was 20:10, which was good enough for me. A nice 100k extra to put in the bank tonight. midnight_spell360 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jellysundae Posted July 9, 2017 Share Posted July 9, 2017 After all my blather yesterday I STILL didn't bet. Betting closes at 8:45 PM for me, I remembered at about 7 o'clock, just for a millisecond, then again at half past 9... The last time I did that it was a MASSIVE win - 118:10 or something - But I'm cool about it (she says, whilst screaming and throwing things as no-one can see ) Seriously though, I AM cool with it, because it's more than made up for by the times I completely blank on betting, then when I check the next day I see a result of 0:10 That's always a nice HAHA moment for me, lol. I have more than doubled my betting money in winnings though, so it would be pretty surly of me to complain, despite my British propensity for that past-time! Got to say, it felt really good that a bunch of us got to enjoy that 100:10 win! Really like we were a little club doing something together. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Angeló Posted July 9, 2017 Share Posted July 9, 2017 i haven't bet since that 100-10 day since i was afraid of losing any NP lol and there was a tank or two .. but usually single arena days dont interest me even if the win is 20:10 or 24:10 but i did bet today Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midnight_spell360 Posted July 9, 2017 Share Posted July 9, 2017 @jellysundae I thought that your Bet History would be "more" than mine Food Club Bet History for midnight_spell360 July 2017.docx AAGGHHH! I can't make this Screenshot visible? Why am I so challenged? Anyway, for everyone who doesn't want to upload a useless file, the picture should show: Bet History Bets Placed Bet Total Win Total Difference 2352 5299476 NP 10207532 NP 4908056 Which is pretty good or I have a serious problem? Not sure. But mostly, I bet every day and I donate some np to tdnalp and TKP, my guild. Mind you, my account is only 41 months pld, so my bets are like 2565 np per bet right now. jellysundae 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jellysundae Posted July 9, 2017 Share Posted July 9, 2017 6 hours ago, midnight_spell360 said: @jellysundae I thought that your Bet History would be "more" than mine Food Club Bet History for midnight_spell360 July 2017.docx AAGGHHH! I can't make this Screenshot visible? Why am I so challenged? Anyway, for everyone who doesn't want to upload a useless file, the picture should show: Bet History Bets Placed Bet Total Win Total Difference 2352 5299476 NP 10207532 NP 4908056 Which is pretty good or I have a serious problem? Not sure. But mostly, I bet every day and I donate some np to tdnalp and TKP, my guild. Mind you, my account is only 41 months pld, so my bets are like 2565 np per bet right now. I honestly don't understand it much at all, lol. But if you've placed bets around 600 times more than me, and your win total's DOUBLE mine, I'd say that's good, wouldn't you? I've remembered to place my bets today, anyway. So hopefully that doesn't mean we're heading for Tanksville! EDIT: Phew! I didn't curse us all by remembering to bet! Collect Winnings Round Bet Info Amount Odds Winnings 6638 Lagoon: Fairfax the DeckhandTreasure Island: Sir Edmund OgletreeHidden Cove: Gooblah the Grarrl 1970 NP 8:1 15760 NP 6638 Shipwreck: The Tailhook KidLagoon: Fairfax the DeckhandTreasure Island: Sir Edmund OgletreeHidden Cove: Gooblah the Grarrl 1970 NP 16:1 31520 NP Total Winnings 47280 NP midnight_spell360 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midnight_spell360 Posted July 11, 2017 Share Posted July 11, 2017 Today, July 10th, 2017, Garet's stats would have given an 18:1 return. Something in the way he suggested that he would have bet both Fran. & Fed. brothers together made me change my be to: 7-10-2017 FC Bet Monday.docx OK If you can't see the chart, I added Fed.C. from Harpoon Harry Arena to Garet's LN: Sir Edmund O. + HC: Fran. C. changing it from 4:1 to 8:1 and Garet's LN: Sir Edmund O. + TI: Tailhook + HC: Fran.C. changing it from 8:1 to 16:1. Adding them to Garet's other 2 bets (which I didn't change) of LN: Sir Edmund O. at 2:1 and LN: Sir Edmund O. + TI: Tailhook at 4:1 for a total of 30:1 or 77,100 NP . Did you follow Garet's bets strictly or change them up a little or all of them too? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Angeló Posted July 11, 2017 Share Posted July 11, 2017 6 hours ago, midnight_spell360 said: Today, July 10th, 2017, Garet's stats would have given an 18:1 return. Something in the way he suggested that he would have bet both Fran. & Fed. brothers together made me change my be to: 7-10-2017 FC Bet Monday.docx OK If you can't see the chart, I added Fed.C. from Harpoon Harry Arena to Garet's LN: Sir Edmund O. + HC: Fran. C. changing it from 4:1 to 8:1 and Garet's LN: Sir Edmund O. + TI: Tailhook + HC: Fran.C. changing it from 8:1 to 16:1. Adding them to Garet's other 2 bets (which I didn't change) of LN: Sir Edmund O. at 2:1 and LN: Sir Edmund O. + TI: Tailhook at 4:1 for a total of 30:1 or 77,100 NP . Did you follow Garet's bets strictly or change them up a little or all of them too? i rarely bet on a single positive day and yesterday was no exception .. i didn't bet .. bcz i don't know how to change the bets and what works best etc ... im waiting a bit on today as well .. he's got a lot of ranting going on .. i need time to process what he's saying then i'll decide to bet or not ... most probably not ... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jellysundae Posted July 11, 2017 Share Posted July 11, 2017 I don't have the understanding to change things up. That would be a guaranteed fail in the making for me! Even if I didn't have a disease that makes me stupid I don't think I'd be able to learn the intricacies of FC. I'm sure Garet's an accountant or something, he's certainly got a better maths brain than I ever had, lol! I'm not liking the look of his commentary for today either D: I think I'll not be betting today because what he's saying is just confusing me completely. Yesterday's 18:10 turned out ok so I'll just tuck that in the bank and hope for less confusion/grumbling from him for tomorrow! Collect Winnings Round Bet Info Amount Odds Winnings 6639 Lagoon: Sir Edmund Ogletree 1972 NP 2:1 3944 NP 6639 Lagoon: Sir Edmund OgletreeHidden Cove: Franchisco Corvallio 1972 NP 4:1 7888 NP 6639 Lagoon: Sir Edmund OgletreeTreasure Island: The Tailhook KidHidden Cove: Franchisco Corvallio 1972 NP 8:1 15776 NP 6639 Lagoon: Sir Edmund OgletreeTreasure Island: The Tailhook Kid 1972 NP 4:1 7888 NP Total Winnings 35496 NP Fairly recently there was a day when the winnings were less than the amount bet. (I'm guessing you didn't bet on that day, Angeló, lol) does that happen very often? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Angeló Posted July 11, 2017 Share Posted July 11, 2017 1 hour ago, jellysundae said: Fairly recently there was a day when the winnings were less than the amount bet. (I'm guessing you didn't bet on that day, Angeló, lol) does that happen very often? not very often but of course if you win anything under 10:10 it's a loss .. but still not a tank Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jellysundae Posted July 11, 2017 Share Posted July 11, 2017 17 minutes ago, Angeló said: not very often but of course if you win anything under 10:10 it's a loss .. but still not a tank Why of course? I'm sure I'm being extremely dense here but can you explain? Why is anything under 10:10 a loss? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kayahtik Posted July 11, 2017 Share Posted July 11, 2017 1 hour ago, jellysundae said: Why of course? I'm sure I'm being extremely dense here but can you explain? Why is anything under 10:10 a loss? x:y is the way people indicate the ratio of winning nps (x) to bet nps (y). So if you bet y amount of neopoints, you need x to be more than y to make a profit (24:10, for example). If x and y are the same (as in 10:10) you break even. If x is less than y (i.e. 8:10) you lose nps. It's not considered a complete tank unless x equals zero (0:10). Idk if that makes more sense or not, I hope it helps though! --------- I haven't read Garet's commentary for today yet. You guys are making me nervous :x I usually bet regardless of how dismal the odds are. The only time I change Garet's bet are when he uses a bet on one single pirate. It seems kind of a waste to me (since the return on that bet is usually only 2-4:10) and I would rather put it toward a two- or three-pirate bet with a higher return. It's technically more risky, but when you figure it's only risking about a 10k return, I don't mind. This situation doesn't arise often (maybe three times in the last three months), but one time I ended up getting an extra 20:10 return because of the single bet I fiddled with. Plus it's a way for me to try my hand at making my own bets, since I'm nowhere near confident enough to make a whole set for myself. But anyway, good luck to those of you betting today! midnight_spell360 and jellysundae 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jellysundae Posted July 11, 2017 Share Posted July 11, 2017 1 hour ago, kayahtik said: you need x to be more than y to make a profit And 10:10 meaning breaking even! Right! Ok, yes that makes sense! Thank you Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Angeló Posted July 11, 2017 Share Posted July 11, 2017 it's because we're making 10 bets , not one ... if you make ONE bet and it wins , for example 8:1 .. you won but if you make 10 bets and only that bet wins , 8:10 is a loss of course making one bet doesn't make sense because it's very risky and the winning margin is very small (if you bet 1000 NP you'll be getting 8000 NP so not a big win) ... that's why when we bet 10 times from different arenas and we're relying on more than one bet winning for a combined score ... acmerasta, jellysundae and midnight_spell360 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jellysundae Posted July 11, 2017 Share Posted July 11, 2017 4 minutes ago, Angeló said: it's because we're making 10 bets , not one ... if you make ONE bet and it wins , for example 8:1 .. you won but if you make 10 bets and only that bet wins , 8:10 is a loss of course making one bet doesn't make sense because it's very risky and the winning margin is very small (if you bet 1000 NP you'll be getting 8000 NP so not a big win) ... that's why when we bet 10 times from different arenas and we're relying on more than one bet winning for a combined score ... Oh geez, :10 = 10 bets...well duh! Ok, so there you guys have had a prime example of what a pile of mush MS has made of my cognitive function. You have to teach me stuff like I'm 5 for me to have a hope of understanding. Not that I'm likely to be able to remember, even when I DO finally understand! So be prepared to have to explain all over again at some point. Thank you Angeló and @kayahtik for being patient with me. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Angeló Posted July 11, 2017 Share Posted July 11, 2017 i have only figured it out recently myself so .. jellysundae 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jellysundae Posted July 12, 2017 Share Posted July 12, 2017 Looks like I should have been brave yesterday! Oh well, ALWAYS another day, right? Today's looking a bit lame, isn't it, though from one perspective for me hardly any pirates to add is GREAT, because brain really doesn't deal with the process well. When it's a day when there's numerous pirates in each bet it's getting all WAY before I've got them all submitted. So if there's a rubbish return from today's bets I can comfort myself with the fact that at least it didn't stress me out too much placing the bets, because that really makes up for things doesn't it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Angeló Posted July 13, 2017 Share Posted July 13, 2017 can someone explain to me what does Garet mean by this phrase ? Quote Bleh, after betting I changed my mind and wished I had done the 8:10 base bet instead of the Fed chase. Too late for me, but if I were in your shoes I'd give it serious consideration Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kayahtik Posted July 13, 2017 Share Posted July 13, 2017 8 minutes ago, Angeló said: can someone explain to me what does Garet mean by this phrase ? I think what he means is drop Fed from the 9th bet (use only Buck, Gooblah, and Sproggie). Angeló and midnight_spell360 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jellysundae Posted July 13, 2017 Share Posted July 13, 2017 Oh gosh, you can't imagine how happy it makes me to realise I'm not the only one who didn't understand what he meant by that >_< Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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