No time to make my own bets today; just followed Hugo's. I hope Gooblah breaks out of his losing streak. It's been 3 days, I think it's time for him to win (yes, I know probability is not affected by previous events, but I just want him to win lol).

I got 18:10 -- managed to hit both upsets, and got 3 boosters out of 4 possible (but unlikely, given you can only place 10 bets).

I got 18:10 -- managed to hit both upsets, and got 3 boosters out of 4 possible (but unlikely, given you can only place 10 bets).

 

Same for me and Hugo.

 

Here's for Round 5271:

Goob x Dan x Bonnie

Buck x Dan x Puffo

Goob x Buck x (Dan, Ned, Stripey, SEO)

Goob x Buck x Dan x (Tail, Admiral, Captain, Peg Leg)

 

or... (different boosters, extra base bet)

Goob x Dan x Bonnie

Buck x Dan x Puffo

Goob x Buck x (Dan, Ned, Stripey, SEO)

Goob x Buck x Dan x (Lucky, Fed, Fran)

Goob x Dan

 

Play it safe:

Goob x (SEO, Ned, Stripey, Dan)

Dan x Puffo

Goob x Dan x (Fed, Lucky, Fran, Buck, Bonnie)

I'm going with option 1, except instead of the base bet (Gooblah x Buck x Scurvy Dan), I'm using a double-safety (Puffo x Bonnie x Scurvy Dan).

Yesterday's Winners:

 

Shipwreck: Gooblah

Lagoon: Federismo

Treasure Island: Peg Leg (3:1)

Hidden Cove: Buck

Harpoon Harry's: Stripey (9:1)

 

Hugo: 36:10

Siniri: 36:10

Option 1: 36:10

Option 2: 36:10 (Me)

Option 3 (Play it safe): 18:10

 

I'm going with option 1, except instead of the base bet (Gooblah x Buck x Scurvy Dan), I'm using a double-safety (Puffo x Bonnie x Scurvy Dan).

 

I went with option 2.

 

Round 5272:

Goob x (Ned, SEO, Fair, Bonnie, Dan, Puffo, Peg Leg, Young, Buck, Admiral)

I'm not a huge fan of single arena days. Especially when 3:1 pirates keep slipping down to 2:1. I decided to bet straight on expected value (including 2 safeties on Fran). In the long run it'll pay better, even if it pays less today.

 

ETA: 3/4 booster arenas for a 16:10. Not bad at all for a single arena day and only 2:1 and 3:1 winners.

 

For posterity's sake, my bets were Goo x (Bonnie, Scurvy, Puffo from Lagoon; Lucky from TI; Peg, Buck, and Young from HC; Ed from HH); Fran x (Scurvy, Puffo)

I'm not a fan of single arena days either. I actually try to play two arenas on those days, if another arena looks borderline safe based on strength and food adjustment.

 

Got 24:10 today with:

 

Gooblah x (Lagoon minus Orvinn)

Gooblah x Scurvy x (Hidden Cove, Harpoon's Harry minus Stuff)

Still waiting to see the changed odds, but I think I'm going to go risky tomorrow with three arenas:

Buck x Gooblah x (Bonnie, Fairfax)

Buck x Fed x (Treasure Island)

Buck x Fed x Gooblah x (Hidden Cove)

You guys that actually understand the ins & outs of FC astound me, haha. I just follow Hugo's bets and hope for the best. I took one look at all the information that is available to help people choose what bets to make and decided that I would just let other people tell me what the best options were XD

Didn't post yesterday, but made bets.

Yesterday's winnings: 12:10

 

Round 5273:

Buck x (Lucky, SEO, Dan)

Buck x Goob x (Hidden Cove, Fed, Fair, Bonnie)

 

Edit:

Round 5274:

Fed x Fair x Dan x Fran

Goob x Fed x Dan x (Peg Leg, Captain, Stuff)

Goob x Fair x Dan x Admiral

Goob x Fair x Dan x Fed x (Tail, Puffo, Bonnie)

Goob x Dan x Admiral x (Peg Leg, Captain)

I didn't get a chance to bet yesterday. Glad I only missed a small win.

 

Ooooh, a 4-arena day! Going to have to examine the possibilities before deciding on my final bets. Days like this, I really wish we could bet more than 10 times. Especially when the base bet only has ~19% chance of success.

 

ETA: Ugh. I'd really like to make 12 or even 13 bets today. Seven safeties just is not enough. I'd consider switching to a 3-arena system, but Gooblah and Fairfax have similar probability according to my calculations. And dropping down to 2 arenas when 4 are positive? Well... *does some more math*

 

Hmm. A 10-bet system with an overall chance of winning of only 54.2%, but a range of possible winnings from 24:10 to 112:10 (with approximately a 50% chance of winning 56:10 or more if I win anything). Or a 10-bet system with an overall chance of winning of 69.5%, but smaller winnings (~47% chance of winning 24:10 or less if I win anything, with max possible winnings of 92:10 -- with only a 0.23% chance of that).

 

I think I'm going risky, but if someone wants the safer system, here it is:

Fed x Scurvy Dan x (S: Goo, Fran; Lagoon: Capn, Peg, Stuff, Fair; HH: Tail, Puff, Bonnie)

Black x Scurvy Dan safety

 

My bets are:

Goo x Fair x Fed x Scurvy x (Tail, Puff, Bonnie)

Fran x Fair x Fed x Scurvy

Goo x (Capn, Peg, Stuff) x Fed x Scurvy

Goo x Fair x Black x Scurvy

Fran x Fair x Black x Scurvy

Fran x Peg x Fed x Scurvy

 

Other bets considered:

Goo x Fair x Scurvy

Goo x Fair x Fed

Fran x Capn x Fed x Scurvy

Goo x Fair x Fed x Scurvy (the base bet)

Goo x Fair x Young x Scurvy

 

Edit: 64:10 thanks to the Captain Crossblades single upset. The conservative 2-arena system would have given 48:10. Hugo's system would have gotten 72:10, and his actual bets netted him 80:10.

72:10 :D

I'm not sure if I should bet today...all arenas are negative, but I kinda want to just take a chance XD

Yesterday's winnings: 64:10 Y-A-Y!

 

No arenas open positive, but a few pirates moved up in odds, giving them a positive payout.

Betting 1000 NP (:P) based solely on expected value:

 

Round 5275:

(Peg Leg, SEO) x Goob x Buck x Fran

(Peg Leg, SEO) x Goob x Fran

(SEO, Peg Leg) x Young x Buck x Fran

Peg Leg x Young x Fran

(Peg Leg, SEO) x Fair x Buck x Fran

SEO x Fair x Fran

 

85% chance of bust, expected value 15:10

 

Use at your own risk.

I thought I was being risky today! I'm betting mostly based on positive expected value, but throwing Lucky in because he does still have ~42% chance of winning. My bets:

 

(Ed , Peg , Lucky) x {(Goo x Fran), (Goo x Fed), (Scurvy x Fran), (Scurvy x Fed)}

Obviously that's 12 bets, so I had to take out two. I took out the two least likely: (Ed, Peg) x (Scurvy x Fed).

 

Overall chance of winning something is only ~56%. Expected value is 12:10. Less than Rocky's, but at least I'm more likely than not to win something (barely, but still! :P). Range of possible wins: 0 (~44% chance), 8:10 (~10% chance), 12:10 (~14% chance), 18:10 (~5% chance), 24:10 (12% chance), 36:10 (16% chance).

 

This is what makes statistics fun. Both Rocky's and my bets, most of the time, will lose (because in my case an 8:10 is still a loss, so my chance of losing is actually ~54%). However, on average, in the long run, we'll come out ahead by making these bets. And even though Rocky would lose more often than me, in the long run he'd end up with a bigger pile of money than me. Like he said, use these bets at your own risk!

I thought I was being risky today! I'm betting mostly based on positive expected value, but throwing Lucky in because he does still have ~42% chance of winning. My bets:

 

(Ed , Peg , Lucky) x {(Goo x Fran), (Goo x Fed), (Scurvy x Fran), (Scurvy x Fed)}

Obviously that's 12 bets, so I had to take out two. I took out the two least likely: (Ed, Peg) x (Scurvy x Fed).

 

Overall chance of winning something is only ~56%. Expected value is 12:10. Less than Rocky's, but at least I'm more likely than not to win something (barely, but still! :P). Range of possible wins: 0 (~44% chance), 8:10 (~10% chance), 12:10 (~14% chance), 18:10 (~5% chance), 24:10 (12% chance), 36:10 (16% chance).

 

This is what makes statistics fun. Both Rocky's and my bets, most of the time, will lose (because in my case an 8:10 is still a loss, so my chance of losing is actually ~54%). However, on average, in the long run, we'll come out ahead by making these bets. And even though Rocky would lose more often than me, in the long run he'd end up with a bigger pile of money than me. Like he said, use these bets at your own risk!

 

Yes, we bet differently according to our present needs. For example, siniri chose a more conservative option (even though it has less payout) because she is aiming to at least profit a little from these bets, while I, since I don't need 1000 NP, decided to go with the more risky, yet higher payout set of bets.

Made bets last minute today and got 108:10 lol. How I like to bet? Combination of expected value and instinct (terrible idea, I know). But I like to bet on pirates with a 50% chance or higher of winning, even if the arena is negative overall.

 

These were my bets:

(Peg Leg, SEO, Lucky) x Goob x Buck x Fran

(Peg Leg, SEO) x Goob x Buck

(Peg Leg, SEO) x Fran

(Peg Leg, SEO, Lucky) x Goob x Fran

 

Expected ratio was 14.066 with a 57.238% chance of getting nothing.

Yeah, I got a 24:10. I wish I hadn't looked at Hugo's bets; his 10-betting Lucky made me more cautious about just betting the pirates that had better EV in that arena. Still 24:10 on a negative arena day when you're "not supposed to" bet? I'll take it!

 

Congrats on the awesome win, jcpet! And I think rocky, too?

I got 72:10 yesterday.
Note to self: Always bet maximum regardless.

 

Normal bets:

Round 5276:

Goob x (Fair, Puffo)

Buck x Ned

Goob x Buck x (Treasure Island, Harpoon Harry's-Squire)

 

Expected value: 15.508:10

22.448% chance of bust

 

CHASE A TROPHY: (me)

Round 5276:

(Fair, Puffo) x (Goob x Ned)

Buck x Goob x Treasure Island

Buck x Goob

Puffo x Goob x Orvinn

 

Expected value: 16.871:10

24.999% chance of bust

Rocky, I'm leaning the same way. After all, I'm doing Food Club for the long-term investment. It matters not how often I lose as long as in the long run, I maximize my profit. My daily bets are way less than 1% of my bank account, after all.

 

P.S. I can't figure out how to use that Neodaq site, and its help page just says "not yet available." I'd just like to compare various betting strategies. But I don't really understand how it chooses bets or what its various "factors" mean. Does it optimize based on combined risk of the 10-best system (like having a diverse portfolio in investing can give a lower beta -- a measurement of risk -- and a higher yield than the individual investments; i.e. more profit at less risk), or just add the individual risks together?

 

I'm not going to use its "place these bets" button because I think that crosses the line about letting a program play Neopets for you (which is clearly against the rules), but I'd like to compare its system to my own to see if I can optimize mine even further.

Rocky, I'm leaning the same way. After all, I'm doing Food Club for the long-term investment. It matters not how often I lose as long as in the long run, I maximize my profit. My daily bets are way less than 1% of my bank account, after all.

 

P.S. I can't figure out how to use that Neodaq site, and its help page just says "not yet available." I'd just like to compare various betting strategies. But I don't really understand how it chooses bets or what its various "factors" mean. Does it optimize based on combined risk of the 10-best system (like having a diverse portfolio in investing can give a lower beta -- a measurement of risk -- and a higher yield than the individual investments; i.e. more profit at less risk), or just add the individual risks together?

 

I'm not going to use its "place these bets" button because I think that crosses the line about letting a program play Neopets for you (which is clearly against the rules), but I'd like to compare its system to my own to see if I can optimize mine even further.

 

Go to http://foodclub.daqtools.info/Bets_Calc1.php. Enter the bets of the petpage you are comparing to. Open the same page in the other tab and enter your bets and press Submit. You should now be able to compare.

 

The "place this bet" button, You enter the bets on the site itself and use it to save time. Since FC is a not a time limit based game, I honestly cannot see what is wrong with it. Although TNT has been known to freeze accounts for having a program that reminds you if you have done your dailies, and other such things.

 

The help page was never constructed..

Round 5276:

Gooblah x (Fairfax, Puffo)

Buck x (Ned, Fran)

Gooblah x Buck x (Hidden Cove)

Gooblah x Buck

Puffo x Gooblah x Peg Leg

 

Wanted to cover Fran as a safety today and only had two booster slots left after covering Hidden Cove -- opted for Hidden Cove instead of Treasure Island because it gives a higher expected value. Not enough to cover Harpoon's Harry, so I put in a base bet, and just a random bet to try my luck.

 

 

Edit: Figured there would be an upset in Shipwreck today. Didn't expect Crossblades though. Nothing for me. 26:10 if you followed Hugo's bets.

My bets were:

Buck x Goo x (Tail, Peg, Orvinn, Stuff)

Fair x Goo

Capn x Goo

Puff x Goo

Buck x Ned

Fair x Ned

Puff x Ned

 

lots of "safeties" because the EVs of those pirates were so high. Glad I had that Capn x Goo one -- gave me 26:10. (I tried making other bets based off Daqtools, but they were a bit too risky for me; my calculations of odds differed a bit from theirs, and I just didn't have enough confidence that theirs were right. Slight changes would have pretty wild effects on the calculated EVs, and it wasn't worth a 60+% chance of getting nothing for me. I don't think any of them included Capn, so it would have gone bust.)

26:10 yesterday:

 

Quick Bets:

 

Goob x Fran

Dan x Stuff

Fran x Stuff

Goob x Dan x (Orvinn, Fed, Tail, Bonnie, Fair, Ned, Buck)

The top 8 bets are the base bet (Scurvy x Goo), Scurvy x Goo x (Stripe, Ed, Peg, Orvinn, Bonnie, Ned, Fair). Next is Fran x Goo, and then there are several at a bit over 2:1: Scurvy x Goo x (Fed, Tail, Buck). After those 3 comes Scurvy x Goo x Lucky (at just under 2:1).

 

The two safeties including Stuff have slightly less value because Gooblah's such an overwhelming favorite in that arena. So I'm going to play a bit riskier and ignore Stuff. Since the Fran x Goo safety has the next best positive value after the first eight listed above, it's a no-brainer to include. Leaving one spot, it's tempting to round out either Shipwreck or HH with the last booster from one of those arenas. But once I bet all 4 in an arena, I don't need the base bet -- so why not round out both arenas? If there's no upset, I'm guaranteed at least 16:10. If Fran upsets, Scurvy, I'll get 14:10. If there are any other upsets, I'll get nothing (~25% chance). I could leave out the bet on Orvinn, but it's got a 5% shot and pays 52:1, giving it the highest EV of all the bets I considered. The Scurvy x Stuff safety only has ~7% chance and it only pays 26:1; the Fran x Stuff safety only has a 2% chance, so it's even worse than the Orvinn long shot -- sure, it pays 91:1, but its EV is lower.

 

Summary of my bets:

Scurvy Dan x Goo x (all in SW, all in HH, Orvinn in Lagoon)

Fran x Goo safety

Overall EV: 2.3:1

Today's bets:

 

Scurvy x Stuff
Gooblah x Fran

Scurvy x Gooblah
Scurvy x Gooblah x (Treasure minus Squire, HH)

 

 

Edit: Blackbeard? Really?

I was kicking myself a bit for the lack of Stuff safety until I saw Blackbeard won, too. Only 1 2:1 pirate won; anyone who called the upsets is going to top the new high score table. I forgot to start saving wins yet, so I'll just have to see how I do in the next few days. I'd love a trophy upgrade, but I hate forgoing interest.

 

Edit 9/27: Today has 4 positive arenas, though none are sure things, by any means. I decided to go with the 4-arena system anyway, knowing it would provide the highest expected values, though the most risk, too. After considering a number of bets (including many double- and triple- safeties), I settled on the following:

Fran x Scurvy x Goo x Bonnie x (all in HC: Squire, Young, Ed, Stripe)
Ned x Scurvy x Goo x Bonnie (SW safety)
Fran x Fed x Goo x Bonnie (Lag safety)
Fran x Scurvy x Buck x Bonnie (TI safety)
Fran x Scurvy x Goo x (Tail, Peg) (2 HH safeties)
Ned x Scurvy x Goo x Tail (SW-HH double safety -- I went with the double safety with the highest chance of success, though it only has ~3.7% chance. It's still more likely than either the Fed or Black single safety, though.)

This is pretty risky; chance of getting nothing is ~54%. But the EV is 20:10.

Edited September 27, 201313 yr by siniri