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Posts
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Everything posted by Secre
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Oh boy, I just bought a handful. One took 17 goes to break!!! That was tedious!!
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You were wise! Apparently I picked the wrong arena and tanked. Which I suppose at least says my basic principle was correct - I just picked the wrong horse to back. I did skip Saturday and just followed Garet yesterday. Today I've gone with Garet but swapped his Ol' Stripey safety in Hidden Cove for the Tailhook safety in Harpoon. Same odds, but Tailhook is the stronger pirate even if he is against Goob today.
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And my risk came through as I cam out with 32:10 to Garet's 20:10! Today is officially a skip day according to Garet and Reddit. I disagree. There are positive arenas... just not strong ones. And we go for the risk.
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Hopefully this is allowed - I'm not selling them, so I'm not promoting my own business. But one of the sellers on Shoppy is currently holding a discounted NC card sale until 30th November and I thought a few people might be interested in receiving 2000NC for $7 here! https://shoppy.gg/@asm96?fbclid=IwAR3pR7UPsJl7kcXmLjAdtjPxsroB-c-U15hNjhimHAH_1K3NsmgNML10QRI
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Thanks!! And yep... Grandpa might even be a bad influence!! Hah! Never seen that movie... now I might need to! I also found a cute Neopets/Pokemon cross in the Pound - Rikupichu - who I've picked up on my side and plan to move across to my baby side (eventually, I need to move pets about!). She's currently a Ruki, but I suspect I'll morph her into a Yurble and then paint her Baby!!
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So I came out at just under Garet as Tailhook didn't come through. 40:10 isn't to be scoffed at though. Today I'm back to taking a risk. I've gone really got one safety and that's in Harpoon on Fran. I've doubled my main bets up by hitting both Ol' Stripey and Tailhook in Treasure, boosted the two 2:1's in Shipwreck and then got two safety bets both riding on Fran in Harpoon with the two likely candidates in Treasure. Risk? Yeah... probably!!
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I bit the bullet and got my little rascal his minder!! I got the paint brush for 190k so I consider that a steal!!
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Hah, well I went on a 4 point hunt yesterday with omelettes and cards etc. I also got slightly further in my documenting of points in my spreadsheet. I still have pages of SDB to go through and I'm now at a whopping 22,208 points... which again, says a lot about my obsessive tendencies really....!
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So, I disliked the option of ignoring Tailhook in Lagoon. Whenever Garet ignores a 3:1 opener, the 3:1 wins so it seemed like a good way to get a tank. So my set has a lower potential return overall, but covers Tailhook if one of the two 2:1's in Treasure come through. It does mean I'm boosting the 2:1's in Treasure rather than the potential higher return in Shipwreck.
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And for the first time in three contests, I'm actually on time in entering!!
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Snipped into second at the last moment! Last I checked it was a draw on second place!!
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Well, it's a skip day today. So instead of trying to make sensible bets, I've just stuck 1000 per bet on some high end hopes. I lose very little when it fails, but have the potential to make a fortune out of very little!!
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I've gone all out, particularly as Goob has now lost several days in a row it seems more than likely he will win this one... I hope. Providing Goob wins, my expected minimum return is 12:10 which isn't worth it unless I put the full bet into it really. Garet's expected minimum if Goob comes through is 14:10 as he's included a single base bet... which I've ignored in my ever hopeful Lucky chase of 26:1. Now if Lucky wins, I'll get a nice 34:10!! It'll be just my luck though that Orvinn or Stuff-a-Roo win upsetting the applecart as that means I picked the wrong horse to chase...
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That would be useful indeed - although, I have so many items that I'd end up going page by page anyway I suspect. The scary thing is that I did clear everything - with the exception of my few dailies goodies that I made in the final few days of CC when I'd already decided I was happy with my loot!! So these 12,000 odd points? They are all new buys/gains. I've spent at least a few days solely trawling through people's junk!!!
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I've only forgotten to bet once and that was a tank day!! I've made my own bets on Garet's skip days though... and that nearly always ends badly!!
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Well, I assume we all busted Saturday-Sunday!! I certainly did, but don't feel too bad as even if I'd have taken Garet's less risky strategy, I'd have still had a bust! Yesterday was a straight, follow Garet day, so a healthy 28;10 profit. Today, I'm following Garet, but removing the base bet and putting an additional bet on Lucky and Goob. I may lose that 2:1 boost if the lower bets come through. But Lucky has a decent win rate and there aren't that many pizza's on the menu today, so I would prefer to shoot for that 26:1 chase. @jellysundaeLooks like you are indeed the youngest - but hey, at least you don't lose as much when it goes bump!!
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Whoop whoop!! 72:10 and over 900,000k! I bought several island Hissi MPs yesterday for resale that are all but covered now!! Today. Today I am taking a risk. I have dropped all the Goob safeties, boosted Cove and Treasure and got the one Lagoon safety. This may tank spectacularly, but with three solid-ish positives, it seems wasteful to have seven safeties!! @LekkerLekker89, whoever you are following, use all of their bets and bet a consistent amount. The betting sets are designed to try to cover all bases so you make a profit. Do note, the set I’ve posted above is significantly more risky than Gareth’s for instance. I had a big win yesterday and felt like risk!
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Ok, so I'm on page 27 of 43 or so.. and have 12,000 odd points if the points stay the same. And that doesn't include my stock of healing potions which are on a later page. You'd hardly believe that I only got rid of all my junk less than a month ago, would you!???
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I sold my KAUF around 65, my LUPE around 71 a few weeks back. My MPC went yesterday in the 60's and my STFP went today at 61. I'm just looking at CHIA now, which is determined not to go up!!
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Eh, so 28.10 as the safety came through. Garet got 32.10 as he included a base 4.1 bet. I still say the chance of the four pirates winning and the additional double upset safety was worth it! And yep, everyone seems united today on the relative risk of the four positives, Reddit and Garet alike. So I’m running with that! Garet has included instructions for a less risky bet set using three positives, but I think today is a day to run a risk!! I mean, look at the potential profit on that!! It's a pity both Shipwreck and Lagoon needed two safeties each as a base bet would have been an awesome addition... but I'm not happy to add anymore risk to the equation than there already is!
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Well, it's a good thing Boochi's firing blanks... Harm isn't my current pet and was only recently painted Halloween. Although, my rage would have been indescribable if my actual active a Mutant Draik had been hit!!
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If I end up with enough points in 1-2 point items, I may do the same with selling 6 point items depending on the prize shop of course as well. Once I've got all of the items input on a spreadsheet, I can start to play to figure out how many points I have within the individual point brackets. I quite like browsing the shops - I'll search for an item and then run down all of the shops that come within my price bracket for other items. It's slightly less tedious than hitting the same item thousands of times and means I have a wide spread of different items to put in!
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The existing safety came though, so all was good!! Today I may need luck. I have gone with a more risky set that aligns more with jkRollingDown on Reddit than with Garet, and I've swapped out his Peg Leg safety for an additional double upset cover on Buck and Ned, as I'm relatively confident that this match will go to either Goob or Buck!!
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Congrats! I haven't even tried to go for that one yet!
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I missed CHIA in the end, so I've run with MPC hitting 66!! It's put my shares back in the negatives again though as a whole. Doh!