The Official Food Club Topic

[Clumsy rockyroad1]

Discuss, post and ask away about anything Food Club related here!

 

Bets for round 5264:

Goob x (Tail, Fair)

Dan x (Lucky, Fran)

Goob x Dan x (Fed, Buck, Cross, Stripey, Peg Leg, Stuff)

 

2 positive arenas today.

2 regular safeties and 2 extra safeties (Tailhook, Fairfax). Combining Gooblah and Scurvy Dan with the 2:1 pirates of Harpoon Harry's and all the Hidden Cove pirates.

 

Yesterday:

Stuff upset. 0:10

[blueberrykiwi141]

Whoot! I finally won 70K from food club! almost makes up for what I have lost! lol

[siniri]

Rocky Road, we picked exactly the same bets today. I'd rather have had the 16:10 from the two 2:1 boosters than the 14:10 safety, but of course I'll take the safety. Haven't looked at the pirates for tomorrow yet.

[Clumsy rockyroad1]

Yesterday: Dan x Fran 14:10

3 arenas open positive today. Treasure Island is perfect, Shipwreck is nice, but I don't trust Dan's chances in Hidden Cove. Playing the 2 arena system today on Treasure Island and Shipwreck, 1 safety and 1 extra safety on Admiral, combining Fran and Goob with all pirates in Hidden Cove and Lagoon. Or if you want the riskier version, play the 3 arena system with 5 safeties on Sproggie, Admiral, Crossblades, Stripey, and Orvinn, combining Goob, Fran and Dan with all pirates in all pirates in Lagoon, plus the 8:1 base bet.

Round 5265:
Goob x (Young, Admiral)
Goob x Fran x (Fed, Buck, SEO, Bonnie, Dan, Cross, Stripey, Orvinn)

Riskier:
Goob x Dan x (Young, Admiral)
Goob x Fran x (Cross, Stripey, Orvinn)
Goob x Fran x Dan x (SEO, Fed, Buck, Bonnie)
Goob x Fran x Dan

 

 

 

So here's why we use safeties.

14:10 yesterday; not an impressive win, but it beats losing!

Today's bets are coming to you from Paris. I'm here exactly two months late for the big party, and I managed to catch one of the few days in France with rain, and hardly any sun.
The odds look a lot better than the local wheather, with three arenas that open positive: Shipwreck, Treasure Island, and Hidden Cove.
My system recommends three standard safeties. (Remember, safeties are based on opening odds of 3:1 to 7:1, some of those pirates are now at 8:1 or 9:1, but it's still a standard safety!)
I see no need for extra safeties and the remaining arenas have exactly seven non-13:1 pirates, so my system virtually plays itself today.
(That being said, betting on Peg Leg for that 104:1 long shot might have been interesting. If I had seen that before actually placing my bets, I would have at least considered sacrificing the Orvinn safety.)

Quoting ~MyFoodClubBets.

Round 5265: (~MyFoodClubBets)

Goob x Dan x Young

Goob x Fran x (Orvinn, Stripey)

Goob x Fran x Dan x (Tailhook, Ned, Lucky, Fed, Buck, SEO, Bonnie)

Edit: I might actually go with my riskier bets today. Hugger22's bets are a bit too risky I think.

[siniri]

There's not a lot of arbitrage in Hidden Cove, which means Scurvy Dan's "true" odds are between ~51% to ~56%. I came up with the exact same two options as you (again), Rocky Road -- our systems must be very similar if not identical! With the more conservative bets, I have ~85% chance of winning at least 16:10 (and up to 92:10 with dark horses in both booster arenas). With the riskier bets, I only have ~74% chance of winning anything, but potential winnings range from 24:10 to 96:10 (with only a single dark horse). You could actually split the two systems by not including Scurvy Dan in the safeties for Shipwreck (this way, if there's a double-upset, you'd still win something). You'd miss out on the Lagoon boosters if Scurvy lost, but you'd still have a positive day (and if Scurvy wins, you get double for Lagoon). I think this is actually what I'm going to do:

 

Fran x Gooblah x (Scurvy, Captain, Stripey, Orvinn)

Fran x Gooblah x Scurvy x (Fed, Buck, Edmund, Bonnie)

Gooblah x (Young, Admiral Blackbeard)

 

(For me, it's worth the additional ~11% chance of winning something to sacrifice halving the Shipwreck safeties -- safeties are, after all, supposed to make sure you don't lose, and 18:10 or 24:10 are perfectly fine winnings. I'd rather not get too greedy and get 0:10.)

 

P.S. Hugo often talks about opening odds -- but where does he find them? If I check in late and he's already posted his bets, I'll sometimes use his bets to get closer to them, but is there somewhere that you can find the actual opening odds?

[Rune Valentine]

I'm not sure how you could be playing Food Club and have not heard of Daqtools :) http://foodclub.daqtools.info/ might help you make "wiser" bets.

[siniri]

I'm not sure how you could be playing Food Club and have not heard of Daqtools :) http://foodclub.daqtools.info/ might help you make "wiser" bets.

Thanks, Rune Valentine. I'll use that to get the original odds. Their calculated probabilities were all within +/- 1% of the ones I calculated, so I think we use a similar system for the calculations. I've got my Excel spreadsheet set up already to calculate expected values, etc., so I really only need the starting odds to make "wise" bets.

[jcpet]

When you guys bet, do you favour the changed odds, or the opening odds?

 

Also, how much do you guys trust the odds? For example, in today's competition (Round 5265), in Harpoon's Harry, Lucky has a strength of 82 and a food adjustment of 0. Ned has a strength of 79 and a food adjustment of 0, but Ned's odds are 2:1 and Lucky's odds are 8:1. It doesn't make sense that Ned has a much higher chance of winning compared to Lucky.

[siniri]

I haven't found a good system to account for the food, strength, and weight, and I feel they're usually accounted for in the opening odds. So out of laziness, I basically trust the opening odds. If Hugo suggests an extra safety or booster, I'll consider it since he actually does look at that stuff. It's about 50-50 whether I go with it.

 

I choose my bets based on both the opening and changed odds. I adjust the opening odds -- converting them to probabilities -- so that each arena's adds up to 100%, as it should. Any "extra" probability has to go to the 2:1 pirate, because of the way TNT lists the odds. If the probabilities add up to more than 100%, I take away from the 2:1 pirate the most -- because that has the most room to take away, but I'll also take away from others a little just to get the total down to 100%. Usually I don't adjust anything below 5:1 (and it's rare to adjust below 3:1). I consider these adjusted probabilities the "true" probabilities.

 

Then I calculate the "expected value" (average expected payout if this Food Club day were repeated 1000's of times = current odds * bet * probability) for each potential bet (choosing the potential bets based on a system similar to Hugo's, but I'll consider all potential non-13-opening safeties). My spreadsheet also calculates the average payout by arena so that I can pick the booster arena(s) that will pay off the best, on average. Obviously, if a pirate's current odds have gotten longer than their starting odds, their expected value will go up, and I'm more likely to bet on them. But I also like to make combinations of bets that increase my chances of winning something if the expected values aren't too much lower (because if you bet solely based on expected value, you might end up picking only 1-2 medium-risk pirates from each booster, and get nothing a lot more often -- basically, I'm willing to sacrifice a little bit of profit to have more consistent winnings).

 

My overall win percentage is 74% net profit over 1568 bets; that's been steadily increasing as my early bets (when I tried to figure out food/strength stuff), which were a net loss, count for less and less. There are probably people who do it better, but I usually spend only 5-15 minutes/day, for ~60k/day profit.

[blueberrykiwi141]

If you have not played this you need to start (if you want to make NPs that is)!!!

I have only played for about 5 days now and I just WON BIG today!! with a profit of 400K!!!!! ( i spent about 80K on bets)

[jcpet]

I haven't found a good system to account for the food, strength, and weight, and I feel they're usually accounted for in the opening odds. So out of laziness, I basically trust the opening odds. If Hugo suggests an extra safety or booster, I'll consider it since he actually does look at that stuff. It's about 50-50 whether I go with it.

 

I choose my bets based on both the opening and changed odds. I adjust the opening odds -- converting them to probabilities -- so that each arena's adds up to 100%, as it should. Any "extra" probability has to go to the 2:1 pirate, because of the way TNT lists the odds. If the probabilities add up to more than 100%, I take away from the 2:1 pirate the most -- because that has the most room to take away, but I'll also take away from others a little just to get the total down to 100%. Usually I don't adjust anything below 5:1 (and it's rare to adjust below 3:1). I consider these adjusted probabilities the "true" probabilities.

 

Then I calculate the "expected value" (average expected payout if this Food Club day were repeated 1000's of times = current odds * bet * probability) for each potential bet (choosing the potential bets based on a system similar to Hugo's, but I'll consider all potential non-13-opening safeties). My spreadsheet also calculates the average payout by arena so that I can pick the booster arena(s) that will pay off the best, on average. Obviously, if a pirate's current odds have gotten longer than their starting odds, their expected value will go up, and I'm more likely to bet on them. But I also like to make combinations of bets that increase my chances of winning something if the expected values aren't too much lower (because if you bet solely based on expected value, you might end up picking only 1-2 medium-risk pirates from each booster, and get nothing a lot more often -- basically, I'm willing to sacrifice a little bit of profit to have more consistent winnings).

 

My overall win percentage is 74% net profit over 1568 bets; that's been steadily increasing as my early bets (when I tried to figure out food/strength stuff), which were a net loss, count for less and less. There are probably people who do it better, but I usually spend only 5-15 minutes/day, for ~60k/day profit.

 

Thanks for the reply. I've been trying to figure out the strength and food adjustments but I feel like it throws me off all the time. Like today. It doesn't look like Fed will be upset in Lagoon, but Peg Leg's 3:1 odds scares me a bit. Haven't quite decided what to bet yet, but probably one of the following:

 

Goob x Ned

Buck x Sproggie

Goob x Buck x (Lagoon, Harpoon's Harry)

 

or

 

Goob x Ned

Buck x Sproggie

Goob x Buck x (Lagoon)

Goob x Buck x Fed x (Harpoon's Harry)

[Clumsy rockyroad1]

There's not a lot of arbitrage in Hidden Cove, which means Scurvy Dan's "true" odds are between ~51% to ~56%. I came up with the exact same two options as you (again), Rocky Road -- our systems must be very similar if not identical! With the more conservative bets, I have ~85% chance of winning at least 16:10 (and up to 92:10 with dark horses in both booster arenas). With the riskier bets, I only have ~74% chance of winning anything, but potential winnings range from 24:10 to 96:10 (with only a single dark horse). You could actually split the two systems by not including Scurvy Dan in the safeties for Shipwreck (this way, if there's a double-upset, you'd still win something). You'd miss out on the Lagoon boosters if Scurvy lost, but you'd still have a positive day (and if Scurvy wins, you get double for Lagoon). I think this is actually what I'm going to do:

 

Fran x Gooblah x (Scurvy, Captain, Stripey, Orvinn)

Fran x Gooblah x Scurvy x (Fed, Buck, Edmund, Bonnie)

Gooblah x (Young, Admiral Blackbeard)

 

(For me, it's worth the additional ~11% chance of winning something to sacrifice halving the Shipwreck safeties -- safeties are, after all, supposed to make sure you don't lose, and 18:10 or 24:10 are perfectly fine winnings. I'd rather not get too greedy and get 0:10.)

 

P.S. Hugo often talks about opening odds -- but where does he find them? If I check in late and he's already posted his bets, I'll sometimes use his bets to get closer to them, but is there somewhere that you can find the actual opening odds?

 

Yes, almost the same, maybe different boosters or safeties, but otherwise same.

 

Thanks, Rune Valentine. I'll use that to get the original odds. Their calculated probabilities were all within +/- 1% of the ones I calculated, so I think we use a similar system for the calculations. I've got my Excel spreadsheet set up already to calculate expected values, etc., so I really only need the starting odds to make "wise" bets.

 

Me neither. Although I know how to do expected value, I just let the website do it (much faster than me). http://foodclub.daqtools.info/Bets_Calc1.php

 

When you guys bet, do you favour the changed odds, or the opening odds?

 

Also, how much do you guys trust the odds? For example, in today's competition (Round 5265), in Harpoon's Harry, Lucky has a strength of 82 and a food adjustment of 0. Ned has a strength of 79 and a food adjustment of 0, but Ned's odds are 2:1 and Lucky's odds are 8:1. It doesn't make sense that Ned has a much higher chance of winning compared to Lucky.

 

Of course the opening odds. The changed odds reflect the bet pattern of the bettors. If the odds go down, less people are betting on that pirate, and vice versa. Sometimes the odds are just wacky, I don't usually care unless it's a 13:1 that should have a way better odds or a irate that has wacky odds in a positive arena, when I adjust accordingly.

 

Hugger22 got 56:10, I got 48:10. Meh.

 

Collect Winnings Round Bet Info Amount Odds Winnings 5265 Shipwreck: Franchisco Corvallio

Treasure Island: Gooblah the Grarrl

Hidden Cove: Scurvy Dan the Blade 3242 NP 8:1 25936 NP 5265 Shipwreck: Franchisco Corvallio

Lagoon: Sir Edmund Ogletree

Treasure Island: Gooblah the Grarrl

Hidden Cove: Scurvy Dan the Blade 3242 NP 40:1 129680 NP Total Winnings 155616 NP

 

 

 

2 positive arenas today, Shipwreck and Hidden Cove. Both look quite strong. 1 standard safety and no extra safeties, combined with all pirates in Lagoon and Harpoon Harry's and the 4:1 base bet. You could replace the 4:1 base bet with a safety on Sproggie if you want.

 

Bets for round 5266:

Goob x Ned

Goob x Buck x (Fed, Peg Leg, Crossblades, Squire, Dan, Lucky, Fran, Stripey)

Goob x Buck or Buck x Sproggie

 

Odds Probability Cumulative 0:1 26.212% 26.212% 14:1 12.689% 38.900% 20:1 12.596% 51.496% 24:1 8.019% 59.515% 36:1 19.650% 79.166% 40:1 9.801% 88.967% 52:1 5.201% 94.168% 64:1 2.625% 96.792% 80:1 3.208% 100.000%

 

 

Expected return: 24.165:10

 

Yesterday's winnings: 48:10

[siniri]

Days like today leave my scratching my head at how Hugo chooses his booster arenas. I usually pick based on highest average expected value across the arena (weighted by their chance of winning, of course), and he often says he picks the arena with the largest chance of upset... but that's not Treasure Island today. With two 2:1 pirates, their combined odds of winning must be at least 78% (because if they weren't that high, the other pirates would have better opening odds). Whereas both Lagoon and Harpoon Harry's, with single 2:1's, have much better chances of an upset. For Lagoon, there's less than a 76% chance of either a 2:1 or 3:1, which is less than the chance of the 2:1's in TI (and the current odds in Lagoon are 2, 3, 6, and 13 vs. 2, 2, 7, and 13 in TI -- not really that different to warrant doubling the chance of getting only a 2-pirate).

 

Plus, there were no opening 13:1's in Lagoon or HH, which makes the betting strategy even easier to decide: single safety, all pirates in Lagoon and HH, and either the base bet or another safety on Young Sproggie if you're paranoid (yes, his odds have changed, but Gooblah's odds are so high that the expected value is not as good as the base bet -- so I'm going with the base bet this time). (If you want to go a bit riskier, you could forgo the safety and base bet and bid on the two 2:1 pirates in TI. You'd have ~63% chance of winning something).

[Clumsy rockyroad1]

Days like today leave my scratching my head at how Hugo chooses his booster arenas. I usually pick based on highest average expected value across the arena (weighted by their chance of winning, of course), and he often says he picks the arena with the largest chance of upset... but that's not Treasure Island today. With two 2:1 pirates, their combined odds of winning must be at least 78% (because if they weren't that high, the other pirates would have better opening odds). Whereas both Lagoon and Harpoon Harry's, with single 2:1's, have much better chances of an upset. For Lagoon, there's less than a 76% chance of either a 2:1 or 3:1, which is less than the chance of the 2:1's in TI (and the current odds in Lagoon are 2, 3, 6, and 13 vs. 2, 2, 7, and 13 in TI -- not really that different to warrant doubling the chance of getting only a 2-pirate). Plus, there were no opening 13:1's in Lagoon or HH, which makes the betting strategy even easier to decide: single safety, all pirates in Lagoon and HH, and either the base bet or another safety on Young Sproggie if you're paranoid (yes, his odds have changed, but Gooblah's odds are so high that the expected value is not as good as the base bet -- so I'm going with the base bet this time).

 

He mostly chooses with his gut. That's why you can beat him by the power of expected value. :P

http://foodclub.daqtools.info/index.php?requestday=5267 Using this, just pick the arenas with the least negative arbitrage (Under Ratio on the left) as your boosters.

[blueberrykiwi141]

I totally forgot to bet today!! Oh well, I will bet tomorrow.

[jcpet]

I totally forgot to bet today!! Oh well, I will bet tomorrow.

 

Good thing you didn't. Double upset today, and you probably wouldn't have covered it in your bets. 0:10 today...

[Cassia]

Gah, didn't cover the Bonnie Pip upset.

 

Me neither. Although I know how to do expected value, I just let the website do it (much faster than me). http://foodclub.daqtools.info/Bets_Calc1.php

 

 

How do you use this site?

[jcpet]

Me neither. Although I know how to do expected value, I just let the website do it (much faster than me). http://foodclub.daqtools.info/Bets_Calc1.php

 

How do you use this site?

 

You basically just enter the max bet you have at the top, and then enter the bets you want to make and it will calculate the expected values for you after you click "Submit" at the top.

 

Amount - Amount you're betting

Payoff - Ratio of your bet and how much NP you will get if it is a winning bet

Prob - Probability of the bet

Expected Ratio = Prob * Payoff / Amount

Net Expected = (Prob * Payoff) - Amount

Max Bet - How much you will need to bet to hit the maximum payoff of 1 mil

 

Once you have all your bets ready, simply press "Place this bet" and your bets will be made on Neopets. Much easier than putting your bets in one by one on the food club page.

 

[Clumsy rockyroad1]

Yesterday: 0:10 Bonnie upset. That was unexpected.

3 arenas open positive today, Shipwreck, Treasure Island, and Harpoon Harry's. None of the arenas in particular look particularly strong, but I'll use the 3 arena system anyway. 6 standard safeties and no extra safeties (unless you want to cover the 13:1 pirates) combined with all pirates in Lagoon.

 

Bets for Round 5267:

Goob x Tail x (SEO, Stripey)

Goob x Dan x (Fair, Stuff)

Tail x Dan x (Fed, Fran)

Goob x Tail x Dan x (Admiral, Peg Leg, Ned, Crossblades)

[siniri]

I chose the ten bets with the highest expected values (using the two-arena system, considering all potential safeties and boosters). In the long run, it'll pay off the best, though my overall chances of winning today are slightly lower now. We'll see how it pays off.

[blueberrykiwi141]

I am not betting today. I didn't see anything good coming out of it, since I have bad luck betting usually lol

[siniri]

I chose the ten bets with the highest expected values (using the two-arena system, considering all potential safeties and boosters). In the long run, it'll pay off the best, though my overall chances of winning today are slightly lower now. We'll see how it pays off.

So I started checking in my two risky arenas: Lucky, check (24:1). Blackbeard, check (16:1). Then the last booster: Stripey, okay (8:1). But were there any upsets in the two main arenas? Scurvy, check. Come on, Gooblah! You had a 70% chance... Young Sproggie. I considered this extra safety over the base bet because it paid better, but its expected value was lower, and I was trying to follow a system. *sigh*

 

Blueberry, had you followed Hugo (myfoodclubbets) today, you'd have gotten 26:10. FYI.

[jcpet]

Didn't cover Sproggie yesterday either, busted.

 

Today's bets:

 

Tailhook x (Puffo, Fran)

Buck x (Peg Leg, Blackbeard)

Tailhook x Buck x (SEO, Lucky)

Tailhook x Buck x Gooblah x (Lagoon)

[Clumsy rockyroad1]

Wasn't able to bet at Round 5268 and 5269, here's my supposed bets:

Round 5268:

Goob x Dan x (Fair, Admiral, Puffo, Stuff, Stripey, Orvinn, Fed)

Goob x Buck

Dan x (Young, Peg Leg) --- Sproggie had more average payout (I'm serious)

 

Result: 26:10

 

Round 5269:

Buck x (Peg Leg, Admiral)

Tail x (Puffo, Fran)

Buck x Tail x (Dan, Bonnie, Fed, Stripey, Fair, Squire)

 

Result: 18:10

 

TODAY: Round 5270

Goob x (Treasure Island, SEO, Fran, Fed, Fair, Ned)

Fed x Lucky (Gamble)

[siniri]

Similar bets, but I did Lucky x (Ed, Fran) as my safeties. That of course meant I had to drop someone from the other bets, so I dropped Tailhook from Treasure Island. Sure, he's 2:1, but the arbitrage there is fairly high, and most of that has to go to him. So in the long run, I'm better off betting on the others than him in that arena (i.e., he has the lowest expected value based on my calculations). Besides, the payout's only 4:1 on him, anyway. Not like I'm giving up a lot.