crazy_cat_luv_bb Posted June 17, 2013 Share Posted June 17, 2013 Didn't notice a topic about this, so I thought of opening one. The title is too obvious. Who has the best food club bets in your opinion? I'm using Hugo's bets, but I don't know if his is the best because I only copied the bets from him and hardly ever tried different bets. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wakka9ca Posted June 17, 2013 Share Posted June 17, 2013 Tracey's bet is good too. I record the winnings of both betters and they vary without major differences. The major winnings come from really odd bets and is purely luck. The consistent winnings come from a clever statistical method to determine the best bets (or simply through experience). I highly suggest to stick to one of them. If you feel confident enough you can choose to alternate between the two at your convenience. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lamppost Posted June 18, 2013 Share Posted June 18, 2013 I use Hugo's bets as well. I like how he explains his reasoning behind the decisions, and while they aren't always mathematically sound (and still luck-based), it comforts me to at least have some idea why I'm betting how I'm betting. I used Jamila's bets for awhile (~jamila233), and I did well with her, but I think I do better with Hugo. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
siniri Posted June 18, 2013 Share Posted June 18, 2013 I like that Hugo lays out his analysis, and he seems to be right about pirates having better odds (or worse odds) than laid out -- when he says a positive arena seems unsafe, there's often an upset there. He also gives alternatives that are more conservative, riskier-but-with-higher-potential, etc. If he deviates from his system, he usually tells what his system says to do -- and in his results, he lays out both, as well. That being said, I don't think he's always the best at picking arenas for his boosters; I often find that different arenas have both a higher chance of a greater-than-2:1-odds pirate winning and a higher average expected value than the arena he picks, so I go with the arena I think will do better, and I've found over the past month that I've been doing that that I've had (on average) better bets than him (only twice has he done better than me, and I've beaten him at least 10 times). I tend to lay out my own bets, then compare with his (especially if he thinks a potential pirate's odds are off), and adjust mine only if his info varies considerably with my assumptions. Most of the time, 6-10 of my bets are identical with his. If you're just going to copy bets, though, his are good. If you want to get to the point where you do your own analysis, just see what he did each day, and the logic will become apparent. Rebecca~ 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wakka9ca Posted June 18, 2013 Share Posted June 18, 2013 Yes, for example, in bet 5176 (today), Tracey's booster paid off (yielding 70:10 and about 560k NP for me...it's a field day for me) while Hugo's went off the mark (good thing I chose Tracey today). In bet 5167, Hugo's bet yielded 88:10 as opposed to 12:10 for Tracey. It really depends on the day. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rebecca~ Posted June 18, 2013 Share Posted June 18, 2013 I generally vacillate between Hugo and Tracey, usually favouring Tracey. Hugo takes more risks, I feel, which can mean amazing payouts, but it also means that there can be lots of misses. I find that Tracey is a bit more conservative, but I rarely end up with nothing when I use her bets. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
feeble_iq Posted June 21, 2013 Share Posted June 21, 2013 Wow, this is really interesting, particularly because Food Club is my main source of NP (much higher than the Stock Market and I don't restock). I use Hugo's and have been happy with the results. I haven't taken the time to analyse how one makes bets but I do appreciate his reasoning, reflection, and options for alternatives. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clumsy rockyroad1 Posted June 22, 2013 Share Posted June 22, 2013 I make my own bets but my bets are similar to Hugo's. Somewhat like siniri's method. I chose Hidden Cove instead of Treasure Island yesterday and got 56:10 instead of 24:10. I don't really like Tracey's. A bit too conservative for me. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Raichi Posted June 23, 2013 Share Posted June 23, 2013 So... how do I find their bets? Do I type in Hugo or Tracey in the search bar at neopets? I want to copy also! :D Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clumsy rockyroad1 Posted June 23, 2013 Share Posted June 23, 2013 So... how do I find their bets? Do I type in Hugo or Tracey in the search bar at neopets? I want to copy also! :D Food Club bets: Hugo's: http://www.neopets.com/~MyFoodClubBets Tracey's: http://www.neopets.com/~jamila233 Tracey is more conservative, while Hugo takes more risks and lays out his analysis. If you're using Hugo's, make sure to read the analysis first! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Raichi Posted June 23, 2013 Share Posted June 23, 2013 Thanks! :D yesterday's the last time he made bets though, I'll have to check again around 12PM/1PM NST Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
siniri Posted June 25, 2013 Share Posted June 25, 2013 Today, I made nearly identical bets to Hugo, except I replaced a safety on Franchisco in Lagoon (which would have paid 56:1) with one on Orvinn in Harpoon Harry's (which would have paid 104:1) once I realized that my overall chances of having a winning bet only changed by 1.2% (63.5% vs. 62.3%), because Federismo had a 78% chance of winning in Lagoon to Buck's mere 62% chance in Harpoon Harry's (meaning there was more chance for an upset in Harpoon Harry's). I'll gladly sacrifice 1.2% chance of getting any winning bet for a chance to get nearly double the money, especially when we're talking winning well over 800k (net) if that 104:1 comes in. I chose Orvinn over Stuff-A-Roo because Orvinn opened at 11:1 vs. Stuff's 13:1, so I figured he was slightly less of a long shot (especially since that 13:1 could be 25:1 or even worse) -- plus since Orvinn was now paying 13:1, that increased the expected value of the bet (to over 19k, vs. less than 14k for Fran -- meaning the Orvinn bet would pay off substantially more in the long run). I always look at each arena rather than going to the "collect winnings" page, to slowly discover the results. I breathed a sigh of relief when I saw that Federismo had indeed won in Lagoon. As I clicked on Harpoon Harry's, the last arena, I knew I had ~62% chance of 48:10 (with no upset), ~25% chance of 40:10 (with an Edmund upset), ~9% chance of 104:10 (with an Orvinn upset), leaving me with ~4 to 8% chance of nothing (if the one pirate I didn't bet on won). I'd bet those odds any day of the week! Of course when I clicked over, I saw that Stuff-A-Roo had indeed won, leaving me with nada. *sigh* And that's the thrill of Food Club for you, boys and girls. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jtnvinh Posted June 25, 2013 Share Posted June 25, 2013 I've been fond of hugos bets but sometimes I alter some of his boosters with something I feel will do better. Overall, I prefer Hugo + a little alteration here and there. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wakka9ca Posted June 26, 2013 Share Posted June 26, 2013 Today, I made nearly identical bets to Hugo, except I replaced a safety on Franchisco in Lagoon (which would have paid 56:1) with one on Orvinn in Harpoon Harry's (which would have paid 104:1) once I realized that my overall chances of having a winning bet only changed by 1.2% (63.5% vs. 62.3%), because Federismo had a 78% chance of winning in Lagoon to Buck's mere 62% chance in Harpoon Harry's (meaning there was more chance for an upset in Harpoon Harry's). I'll gladly sacrifice 1.2% chance of getting any winning bet for a chance to get nearly double the money, especially when we're talking winning well over 800k (net) if that 104:1 comes in. I chose Orvinn over Stuff-A-Roo because Orvinn opened at 11:1 vs. Stuff's 13:1, so I figured he was slightly less of a long shot (especially since that 13:1 could be 25:1 or even worse) -- plus since Orvinn was now paying 13:1, that increased the expected value of the bet (to over 19k, vs. less than 14k for Fran -- meaning the Orvinn bet would pay off substantially more in the long run). I always look at each arena rather than going to the "collect winnings" page, to slowly discover the results. I breathed a sigh of relief when I saw that Federismo had indeed won in Lagoon. As I clicked on Harpoon Harry's, the last arena, I knew I had ~62% chance of 48:10 (with no upset), ~25% chance of 40:10 (with an Edmund upset), ~9% chance of 104:10 (with an Orvinn upset), leaving me with ~4 to 8% chance of nothing (if the one pirate I didn't bet on won). I'd bet those odds any day of the week! Of course when I clicked over, I saw that Stuff-A-Roo had indeed won, leaving me with nada. *sigh* And that's the thrill of Food Club for you, boys and girls. Yes, I found today was a very very interesting day in Food Club. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nicoley13 Posted August 10, 2013 Share Posted August 10, 2013 Now that Tracey's on hiatus, here's a question: who has the best Food Club bets that are up quickly? I have no way of betting the day of the results - only the night before, no later than 9:00 PM NST. Lately Hugo has their bets online earlier sometimes; often I can find bets here: http://www.neopets.com/~fiammeta Any other thoughts? :) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Emily Posted August 11, 2013 Share Posted August 11, 2013 Hugo generally has his up quickly, which is good if you can't get online much, but I personally don't like the ambiguity of his bets. Since Tracey has gone on hiatus, I've begun to favour Christie's bets. Out of the few weeks I've been using them, I think we only had one day with a complete loss, and one other day with an 8:10, so we didn't make back everything we had bet. However, she puts hers up kind of sporadically, and if the odds are terrible, she usually won't bet at all. But if you don't mind waiting until the last minute to bet, I'd recommend trying hers. I think there's a little benefit in waiting, in that, the closet you bet to the competition, the more accurate odds you see. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Finn the Human Posted August 14, 2013 Share Posted August 14, 2013 I used to use Hugos and Traceys depending on the amount of open arenas. I stopped using traceys because she went on a hatius and hugo had been earning me some small profit each day. :) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jupitereternalpower Posted September 12, 2013 Share Posted September 12, 2013 I use Hugo too. But I haven't bet in a couple of weeks, no time..so I haven't been checking how much np I've "lost" haha Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cassia Posted September 15, 2013 Share Posted September 15, 2013 I like Hugo's bets. Sometimes I modify his bets a bit, but when I'm lazy (which is usually), I just copy them. His bets managed to net me around 2 million for 600k in bets (granted, half of that was from a 1-day windfall) which I am EXTREMELY happy with XD Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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