xLaura Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 can you give me a link to shazeni's guide? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Manta Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Sure! :D http://www.neopets.com/~Shazeni Generally the bets are more risky than Jamila's bets, but seem to have a higher overall profit too :D Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rugrat0ne Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Well I won 20:10 going with Malvoliow (Hugo), which was what I would have won if I'd stuck with my own bets. Not bad. Most everyone else that I track won 16:10, except one that only had 8:10. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Manta Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Yeah Shazeni hit 16:10 today. Makes me really miffed that I missed betting yesterday >.< But still, 15k profit is better than nothing at all xD Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rugrat0ne Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Arena Breakdown for Round #4308, Jan. 31, 2011 Here is one breakdown of the possibilities in tomorrow’s betting, for those who want to do it themselves, or want to understand why certain bets are popular. Disclaimer: I am new at this, and do not claim any special ability at analyzing Food Club stats. Use at your own risk. I do my betting based on the points outlined in Revenge’s Food Club Guide. I encourage you to read it and experiment on your own, like I did. Stats given, in order, are Pirate Name, Current Odds, Strength, and Food Adjustment (Favorites - Allergies). They were nice and neat in my Word document, but won’t be here. Purple indicates odds that have changed since I first posted. Check the notes at the bottom of the post. Shipwreck: Pirate Name Odds Strength F.A. Admiral Blackbeard 13:1 76 +1 Scurvy Dan the Blade 2:1 87 +3 Stuff-A-Roo 13:1 59 -2 Orvinn the First Mate 9:1 52 +1 Scurvy Dan is the overwhelming favorite here, with Orvinn as a weak second. You might keep one bet reserved for Orvinn, just in case. Lagoon: Pirate Name Odds Strength F.A. Peg Leg Percival 13:1 73 -1 Squire Venable 13:1 61 +1 Young Sproggie 4:1 73 +3 Franchisco Corvallio 2:1 81 +2 Despite his odds, Young Sproggie is a strong second contender, behind Franchisco. I think either one could win. Treasure Island: Pirate Name Odds Strength F.A. Lucky McKyriggan 2:1 82 +3 Federismo Corvallio 3:1 81 +1 Puffo the Waister 4:1 68 +3 Ned the Skipper 13:1 79 -4 Ned the Skipper is clearly out of it, but that’s the only thing that can be said for sure in this match-up. Even the weak Puffo is a threat at +3 FA. Better off to bet all three, or avoid them entirely. Hidden Cove: Pirate Name Odds Strength F.A. Ol’ Stripey 13:1 74 +4 Fairfax the Deckhand 13:1 71 +2 Gooblah the Grarrl 2:1 93 +3 Buck Cutlass 4:1 89 -1 A tougher match-up than it first appears. Gooblah might seem to have a strong edge, with +3 FA and 2:1 odds, but there are some strong 13:1’s there, with high FA’s, and Buck can not be discounted, even with -1 FA. Bet Gooblah, but save some bets for Buck and Stripey at the least. Harpoon Harry’s: Pirate Name Odds Strength F.A. Captain Crossblades 11:1 66 +3 The Tailhook Kid 2:1 81 +3 Bonnie Pip Culliford 10:1 76 0 Sir Edmund Ogletree 4:1 79 +1 Another arena where betting them all or betting for none might be a good strategy. Bonnie Pip is the weakest here with a zero FA, and you might be able to get by without him. Even Captain Crossblades is a threat to win at +3, although he is significantly weaker than Tailhook. EDIT: As of 5pm NST, Orvinn had dropped to 9:1, from his original 6:1. This makes him a much weaker possibility. EDIT 2: As of 8pm NST, Bonnie Pip had dropped to 10:1 from 7:1. My advice about being able to discount him continues to hold. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
xLaura Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 lol, jamila screwed us...oh well, i guess thats why they call it gambling Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rugrat0ne Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Everybody lost today, I think. Well, one person I know of won on one bet, but that's it so far. It was a real upset. Tomorrow's going to be interesting, too. EDIT: Found a site that does all the math for you in determining chance of winning. It's the Food Club tool at DAQtools. Much more accurate than my breakdowns, I'm guessing. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Manta Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 kinda glad I didn't have a chance to bet yesterday then! :P That site is really interesting :O i'm afraid to use it to make my own bets though xD Shazeni's bets aren't up yet...i'll probably decide who to go with after class, although Jamila's bets look fine. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rugrat0ne Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Shazeni has posted his bets. I just wrote them down in my FC book. (Yes, I keep track of these things) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fever Posted February 1, 2011 Author Share Posted February 1, 2011 Right after this I'm about to go update the front page! Woo! Today I am suggesting using either Christie's guides, or Greylorn/Food Club Review. Both of them look safe, and reliable. Christie has more safeties but off the top of my head I can't remember those pirates' odds, so I can't tell you which one pays better. Greylorn relies on Gooblah a lot, but he did throw in three Fairfax bets just to be on the safe side. Everyone else's bets just rely too much on the Goob-man in my personal opinion. Sure, he's won a lot but I just feel safeties are always a good idea for even top pirates. *shrug* If you think Gooblah is going to win it, it's a pretty even toss.. But I'd still suggest Christie or Greylorn. Tracey's bets also look good if you don't mind no Gooblah safeties. Hugo also strongly relies on Gooblah, but he has one bet without Goob. Hugo ALSO is strongly relying on Lucky, which means they're riskier (relying heavily on two pirates just has bad mojo written all over it). HOWEVER, Hugo has one "Goob + Lucky" bet which means if you strike that bet, you'll also hit another (I think?), meaning nice earnings. So, my otp suggestions are: Greylorn/Christie (decent payout I'm thinking, nice safeties, not totally relying on Gooblah), or Hugo (VERY risky, relies on two pirates, win two bets if you hit the Goob + Lucky bet. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rugrat0ne Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Well, I posted my bets as part of the Monthly Competition on the Games Board. We'll see how I do. I'm a little nervous about sharing my bets with people, but I think it'll be fun. EDIT: Won 12:10 on my bets. Not a lot, but not a bad start. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fever Posted February 2, 2011 Author Share Posted February 2, 2011 Well, I posted my bets as part of the Monthly Competition on the Games Board. We'll see how I do. I'm a little nervous about sharing my bets with people, but I think it'll be fun. EDIT: Won 12:10 on my bets. Not a lot, but not a bad start. Woo! Good luck!! :D Suuweet! That'better than I could do! -- As for today's suggestion, I don't think I'm going to suggest betting. It looks like a good day to just sit out and not bet today... the odds are not looking very good. If someone comes along and posts bets that match the locations that have better odds (Shipwreck, maybe Treasure, and Harry's) then I'd probably suggest them. Shipwreck and Harpoon Harry's are the locations that have odds that actually look fairly decent, and that you could probably bet on and be low-risk. But any bets made that look like they're spread out a bit much, and that cover the more tighter odds I would stay away from. Motto today is KIS: Keep It Simple! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rugrat0ne Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 Yeah, I liked one person's description of the betting for tomorrow: "It looks like a pirate's slop bucket." Personally, I think I'm going to try Lucky x (Fran, Blackbeard) x (Gooblah, all of Lagoon), unless odds change or I see a set I like better. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hexy Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 The odds have not been looking good these few days to me, I've mostly been lurking in the neoboards' FC threads and following bets by lefty_libra and hugger22. They've helped me quite a lot and I was able to struggle my way into getting a mil within a week (from mass gaming mostly, but the winnings helped) for my lab ray. :wub_anim: Haven't been winning much this few days though :( Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Manta Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 The odds have not been looking good these few days to me, I've mostly been lurking in the neoboards' FC threads and following bets by lefty_libra and hugger22. They've helped me quite a lot and I was able to struggle my way into getting a mil within a week (from mass gaming mostly, but the winnings helped) for my lab ray. :wub_anim: Haven't been winning much this few days though :( Congrats on breaking a mil! :D Do these people have guides posted or are they just board-based? I'm always interested in looking at new bets :yes: I think I might hold off from betting today. :P Maybe some of my stocks will make up for that soon? :D Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rugrat0ne Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 Hugger22 is Hugo (Malvoliow pet page), who we often recommend here. Lefty_libra posts their bets on the FC Competition thread, like I do. Hugo's not betting today, he didn't like the odds. Lefty_libra has their's posted on the board. Ack, Neopets changed the odds for Lagoon on me when I was halfway through my bets. Had to make some on-the-fly changes to keep from coming up short on a few bets. Oh well, better than it happening after I bet. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hexy Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 @Manta Thanks, it was pretty awesome for me since I started from scratch again! IE: close to 0NPs lefty_libra also used to posts her bets on her baby Kacheek; Innocent's petpage but she took it down when TNT changed their filtering :S I'll wait till later to see if I'm willing to risk betting or not x_x Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rugrat0ne Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 Well, Christie put up a set that was silly when she did it, but now makes sense with the change in odds. She put Stuff-a-roo in 8 of her 10 bets, and he's now 2:1. Haven't done the math on how it changes her overall odds, but I don't think anything drops to below 16:1, except the Stripey/Tailhook bet. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wembly Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 Half the time I place bets, I forget to check if I won or not, woops :rolleyes_anim: but I just found out I won 17000 from the last time I bet apparently. :woot: That was a fun surprise. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hexy Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 It's too hard to decide whose bets to follow, i'm just gonna roll a dice to decide and go to sleep, it's almost 4.30am here <_< Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rugrat0ne Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 Half the time I place bets, I forget to check if I won or not, woops :rolleyes_anim: but I just found out I won 17000 from the last time I bet apparently. :woot: That was a fun surprise. Lol, nice! I can't imagine forgetting to check my bets. I get antsy when it starts to get around that time of day, can't wait to see if I won or not. (Half-hour to go...) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wembly Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 Part of the problem is the time that its released, I usually am busy at that time of day and then when I come back I never seem to remember. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
m0ose_ Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 "You do not have any winning bets!" Second time in the last 3 days x.x Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rugrat0ne Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 I got 8:10. Thanks, Gooblah. So I start the month 20:20, basically breaking even. At least tomorrow looks like a good day to bet. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fever Posted February 3, 2011 Author Share Posted February 3, 2011 It's too hard to decide whose bets to follow, i'm just gonna roll a dice to decide and go to sleep, it's almost 4.30am here <_< Rugrat and I post suggestions and insights on betting each day. And members can chill out herea nd talk about them more, so you should check back :) I got 8:10. Thanks, Gooblah. So I start the month 20:20, basically breaking even. At least tomorrow looks like a good day to bet. Aw D: But that's better than nothing I guess? D: -- Today it looks like the people who've made bets are going a bit crazy with Dan. Christie has some suggestions for what of her bets you can replace as safeties, but the other ones look pretty firm. FCR hasn't released their bets yet, but they often have some logical bets - hopefully they'll also have some safeties for Dan xP Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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