Optimising profit from stock and interest

[u66]

So suppose you are busy and don't have much time to play every day, but can spare a couple of minutes to do dailies over a long period of time? I believe the most profitable dailies are stock market and bank interest. I was thinking of what the best sell price for stock is to make the most from the margin without losing as much from interest (on the 15np/share while waiting to sell edit: and also the interest you lose on the profit you would have made from selling earlier). In summary I decided 71 was a good minimum selling point for stock with an Ultimate Riches account (12.5% interest). I don't know if anyone has done similar caculations before but I thought I'd share mine.

 

So in summary: you have an Ultimate Riches account, and daily buy 1000 shares in stock at 15np, investing broadly over all stocks. What price should you sell shares at to maximise profit?

 

I used the neodaq.com's data miner (<http://www.neodaq.com/charts/RunMine.php>)to calculate average days/run for all stocks for different selling points (from memory I think I used the default variables or 15-18 for buy range, 10 days for full buy period, 0.5 price derating factor). I collected data from start to August 2015.

 

Let "sell" be the selling price, "average" the average days per run, "interest" the daily interest multiplier (in this case about 1 + .125/365), "days" the number of days you keep collecting interest for.

 

Then, the expected total profit from the 15np you spent is: sell * interest ^ (days - average) - 15. To simplifiy I took out "days" as the values compare the same so the formula is: sell * interest ^ -average - 15, which I guess is like profit minus interest lost.

 

Table of values I calculated (sorry don't know how to make proper table):

 

Sell  Avg days  Profit minus interest lost

15    0.0         0.0

20    70.0       4.5

30    160.5     13.4

45    288.0     25.8

60    415.6     37.0

61    425.9     37.7

62    449.7     38.2

63    469.7     38.6

64    486.4     39.2

65    505.3     39.7

66    529.6     40.1

67    563.5     40.2

68    589.9     40.6

69    623.8     40.7

70    649.8     41.0

71    677.4     41.3

72    723.3     41.2

73    751.0     41.4

74    780.4     41.6

75    816.2     41.7

76    888.1     41.1

77    930.5     41.0

78    993.2     40.5

79    1049.4    40.2

80    1139.4    39.2

81    1227.4    38.2

82    1308.9    37.4

83    1394.3    36.5

84    1442.8    36.3

85    1495.2    35.9

86    1549.5    35.6

87    1658.6    34.3

88    1726.5    33.7

89    1808.4    32.9

90    1931.4    31.5

91    2035.2    30.3

92    2161.0    28.9

93    2389.5    26.0

94    2474.4    25.3

95    2565.5    24.5

100   3368.5    16.6

115   4767.2    7.5

130   6426.7    -0.6

145   7324.4    -3.2

250   15889.7   -13.9

500   41962.8   -15.0

 

 

In bold are the best values.

 

These are rough figures for example I assume the average profit is the same as the profit for the average wait time, and also trends may change in the future, and whatever else I didn't think of.

 

It would be interesting to compare with anyone else who has done similar, or anyone who would like to refine my calculations.

[Kute]

I don't know about all that, but I do know that a long time ago I calculated my daily interest I collect from the bank to be over 15,000 a day.  that way I am able to play stocks for free - i guess you could say LOL.. so either way i'm playing and losing interest with points I never really earned?? i guess?  Pressing 1 button daily hardly seems like I earned the 15K+ hehe. 

[ikids]

I've actually been wanting to do this for a while but didn't know about the data miner, so couldn't get the averages.  Now that I know about it I'll play around a bit and see what I get :)

[u66]

 I was thinking the values in my above post is a bit abstract, even I'm not sure how to explain in some concrete term what it means to myself lol, so I made more concrete values in the table below.

 

The idea to explain some more is that if you sell sooner at a lower price, you will start earning interest on the np you get back sooner, which might be more money than you get from waiting until the stock goes higher. For an extreme example if you wait for shares to be 500np, it may take like 50 years or something, by which time you could actually earn more from interest on the original 15np.

 

Summary description of the procedure: Suppose you spend 15np on a share, sell at a certain price, bank the np, and collect interest on that daily at 12.5%. Assuming it takes exactly the average number of days, the table below shows how many np you will have after 5 years (1825 days). The formula (using variables in original post) is

 

sell * interest ^ (days - average)

= sell * (1 + 0.125/365) ^ (1825 - average)

 

 

Sell Days  Final np after 5 years (1825 days)

15       0.0  28.0

20     70.0  36.5

30   160.5  53.0

45   288.0  76.2

60   415.6  97.2

61   425.9  98.5

62   449.7  99.3

63   469.7  100.2

64   486.4  101.2

65   505.3  102.1

66   529.6  102.8

67   563.5  103.2

68   589.9  103.8

69   623.8  104.1

70   649.8  104.7

71   677.4  105.2

72   723.3  105.0

73   751.0  105.4

74   780.4  105.8

75   816.2  105.9

76   888.1  104.7

77   930.5  104.6

78   993.2  103.7

79  1049.4 103.0

80  1139.4 101.2

81  1227.4  99.4

82  1308.9  97.9

83  1394.3  96.2

84  1442.8  95.7

85  1495.2  95.2

86  1549.5  94.5

87  1658.6  92.1

88  1726.5  91.0

89  1808.4  89.5

 

(Notice that the best values are the same as in my above post.)

 

Just multiply the np by 1000 for how much you will have after buying 1000 shares.

 

Selling at 15 effectively means not investing at all and just getting interest. If you sell at 89, it takes almost 5 years to get to the sell point anyway so you have hardly any time to earn interest and get little more than the 89 for selling the stock.

[geoterza]

I'm with Kute in that I get more from interest daily than I spend on the stock market so I feel like I'm playing with "house" money.  I do have different sell points for my individual stocks based on the neodaq report card page.  Most of them are sell points of 75 so it's interesting that I used a different method and came up with the same general sell point.

[ikids]

I'm with Kute in that I get more from interest daily than I spend on the stock market so I feel like I'm playing with "house" money.  I do have different sell points for my individual stocks based on the neodaq report card page.  Most of them are sell points of 75 so it's interesting that I used a different method and came up with the same general sell point.

I have a feeling the sell points from neodaq used a similar method to figure out when to sell.  Basically they looked at how often each stock spikes, and based their recommendations off of that.  This is basically doing the same thing.

 

Would be interesting to run the numbers on each individual stock and see were the best sell point is for each...

[u66]

I have a feeling the sell points from neodaq used a similar method to figure out when to sell.  Basically they looked at how often each stock spikes, and based their recommendations off of that.  This is basically doing the same thing.

 

Would be interesting to run the numbers on each individual stock and see were the best sell point is for each...

 Yes I think the idea on Neodaq is to pick the highest selling point you are willing to wait for, and score cards say how often each stock runs from buy-point to your desired sell point.

 

Individual stocks would be interesting. Actually I have been meaning to analyse whether stocks really do have distinct performance. The idea of the report cards is to buy based on past performance right? But I am suspicious whether past performance really is a good indicator of future performance, and whether different stocks really do behave very different except by random chance.

 

I made a quick graph below, which plots each stock's average days/run for sell point 30 in the first ~6 years against the second ~6 years.

 

 

(You can ignore the two outliers)

 

It looks to me like they are random, with no correlation between past and future performance. (sorry Neodaq!) If I do any further analysis I will post the results.

 

ALSO, I realised that the Neodaq website says Days/Runs is "Average number of days between runs up to the Sell point with a buyable point inbetween", which means it will actually be greater than the time you spend waiting... I will have to consider what to replace the average days/run with, but this means that the actual best selling points will be higher. (Having a look at my spreadsheet, halving the average days makes the optimum prices between 79 and 86, so the actual best selling price may be around 75-79.)

[happysparklez]

I have been using a selling point of 60 for the stocks. (Thank goodness for you guys who like to look and interpret data...) If I'm understanding correctly, this means that the most profitable selling point is at around 75? Thanks so much for this info! :laughingsmiley:

[geoterza]

The way I keep track of stocks is after I looked at the Neodaq and figured out what my sell points were for each stock, I bought that many of each stock so I can see my sell point right in my stock portfolio page.  For example right now I have: 

 

14,075 shares of BB

10,045 shares of BOTT

 

So I "really" have 14,000 shares of BB and I know my sell point is 75 for BB.  (And sell point 45 for BOTT.)  I leave the last 75 unsold as a place holder so when it goes back to 15-20 per share I will remember that that was a 75 sell point.  It's a quick way for me to buy stocks because I buy at whatever has the highest sell point that's currently under 18np.  It wasted a few days of buying stocks to get them all set up, but I find it convenient now that I've been using it a long time and it's self contained within the actual stock portfolio page.

 

After reading this thread, though, I may have to rethink this because if it's all random anyways my system is flawed.

[summertwinkle]

I know back in the day, the rule of the thumb was to sell at 60 but I've stopped doing that since I don't check my stocks daily then I might as well maximize so I've been selling at over 100/share or whatever I think would be the maximum for that particular stock since I always buy only at 15/share. But because I've created a large portfolio, I'm kinda indifferent about it compared to before where I would see at 60. My portfolio is currently more in the green than the red because of the stock diversity.

 

Though I get what you mean, I haven't been playing games and have just been collecting interest. And even then I don't collect interest everyday.  So now I go for the long wait instead as it takes me a while to get like more than 10,000 units for each stock. None of mine are over 20,000. My goal would be to increase from 10,000 to 20,000 so when the price does get that high, I can actually reap in benefits.

 

As for stock buying, instead of using funds from the bank, one of the way is to sell enough stocks that are making any money to get 15k and then reinvest. You don't lose and you translate that gain you earn as additional investment. But it will really screw with your portfolio diversity but that's one way to reinvest without additional cash flow.

[u66]

I was feeling like I want to refine this as the above doesn't have the exact days between buy point and sell point (just neodaq's days/run which seems to be from buy then sell then buy point again), so I am thinking of mining data myself. However, with a bit of Googling I only found the last year's data for opening prices (on Neodaq). I could piece together what I can from the Internet Archive (<https://web.archive.org/web/*/http://www.neodaq.com/charts/data_dump.php>,assuming it has always shown the last year's data) but it will have at least one big hole of missing data for 2009 (and only has opening prices).

 

Does anyone know where I can find a full(er) history of stock prices? I have a feeling I will have to make do with what's archived of Neodaq.

[TaffyTaffyYumYum]

A really good trick for stocks to know is simply to buy stocks on the 27th and 57th minute of the hour when you do. If you do, since 28th and 58th can change the price per stock, you have the maximum chance of getting profit quickly. Even if I only profit 2000 off of each 1000 stocks, thats still 730,000 a year. I only have about 2 million neopoints (account is like 2 days over 2 months), so I cant buy super expensive stocks. Another idea is to buy a ton of the high priced stocks (yeah, sounds like a terrible idea), and so you have more price diversity, which in turn maximizes profit.