A tough question

[Monica]

To whom it may concern,

I have never been the sort to cry conspiracy, let me put that out first. Generally, I consider conspiracy to be the product of either jealousy or paranoia. But a bare week into this year's Altador Cup tournament I am noticing some unsettling trends, of which I will lay forth for the judgment of the masses. I'd like it to be known however, that I am not accusing anyone of misconduct, just asking for a logical explanation of what seems to be an illogical situation.

Exhibit A: Any avid followers of the cup may have noticed some interesting trends over the years. Most have noticed that no champion has gone on to achieve better than 7th place the following year. This fact alone seems slightly unusual. If a team already has a winning formula, it generally isn't too hard to keep winning. But I digress. The point I wanted to ponder was this. It appears that every year the cup is won by the second place team from last year. The first year Haunted Woods defeated Darigan, then Darigan defeated Roo Island, then Roo Island defeated Krawk Island, then Krawk Island defeated Shenkuu. So where does Shenkuu currently stand? 12th place. It doesn't look too good for that trend now, does it?

Exhibit B: If you look at the event results, Shenkuu currently suffers from 11 draws, by far the most of any team. That's nearly half of their events. I've never seen a sport where draws were this easy to come by.

Exhibit C: Shenkuu's Mirsha Grelinek is currently the 6th ranking goal scorer in the league, and Haunted Woods' Zo Junior is 8th. Odd, considering their teams are ranked 12th and 16th respectively. Even more odd considering that Haunted Woods has yet to win a game of Yooyuball. You may argue that he may be one decent offensive player on an otherwise lacking team, but they use the 1+3 configuration, so in fact he is the only offensive player on a highly defensive team.

Exhibit D: The Altador Cup Officials apparently feel the need to shroud themselves in secrecy. We as the general populous are not privy to the methods used to decide the victor of an individual event, nor are we notified of any actual scores, simply a win/lose/draw status.

I would definitely not call these facts hard and fast evidence of anything, but it definitely seems like a succession of coincidences that could point to something sinister. Are the officials rigging the score? Could it be that they are tired of the aforementioned trends making the outcomes too predictable, or is there a more sinister reason? When no one even knows the methods, wouldn't it be easy to call a winning score a draw? Again, I'd like to state that I don't know this for the truth and would love to be proved wrong. I'd like to believe corruption at that level is not a commonplace occurrence, and that of all people the Altador Cup Officials are impervious to such. But I must say, a little information would make me much more confident in the system.

[Noog]

First of all, i know several people who switch teams after they've won first place, so the no repeating makes sense.

Secondly, I am not surprised that they are not telling us anything, if people knew the exact scores, they might complain when they had a draw by, hypothetically, 300 yooyuball points.

Third, rigging the altador cup would not surprise me. If every team wins once before they start having repeats, it would be a great way to show the kids sportsmanship and give everyone a "we're all winners" mindset.

 

I am not supporting this conspiracy, but it wouldn't surprise me.

[hrtbrk]

Another thing to add to the theory although it has nothing to do with the games...

 

I was viewing a projected prize list for this year and there's a

Mirsha Grelinek plushie

as one of the items.

 

Seemed weird that it would be there because they've never won before and all past prize items featuring

team members

have been from winning teams (aside from AC2).

 

Probably looking way too into it, but I'd add that to the list of things that make you go "hmmmm?"

[Lion]

I was viewing a projected prize list for this year and there's a

Mirsha Grelinek plushie

as one of the items.

 

Seemed weird that it would be there because they've never won before and all past prize items featuring

team members

have been from winning teams (aside from AC2).

 

Probably looking way too into it, but I'd add that to the list of things that make you go "hmmmm?"

 

Last year Grelinek was the most valuable player~ So she gets a plushie.

If you notice, the team captains of the winning team all got a toy because they were the MVPs that year.

And also, the winners get their prize shop items the year after they win the cup.

 

While this conspiracy you say may sound hmm... there are things called freeloaders who join the team who won in the past. They do not do anything good for their team. This is why the "winners curse" brings them down.

 

I would NEVER say that the cup is rigged. I don't think it is...

[antiaircraft]

A very interesting analysis - it's good to see somebody laying out the points of contention neatly instead of just making accusations for once. Very much appreciated. :yes:

 

That said, I've always held that rigging match results and overall outcomes would be simply impractical for Altador Cup officials, simply because coming up with a simple algorithm to determine victories and losses would be about as easy as (if not easier) than fabricating convincing results - and a lot more fun!

 

Anyway, the posters above have made some good for/against points as well, so I'll try to go through the list and add my opinions.

 

Exhibit A: Any avid followers of the cup may have noticed some interesting trends over the years. Most have noticed that no champion has gone on to achieve better than 7th place the following year. This fact alone seems slightly unusual. If a team already has a winning formula, it generally isn't too hard to keep winning. But I digress. The point I wanted to ponder was this. It appears that every year the cup is won by the second place team from last year. The first year Haunted Woods defeated Darigan, then Darigan defeated Roo Island, then Roo Island defeated Krawk Island, then Krawk Island defeated Shenkuu. So where does Shenkuu currently stand? 12th place. It doesn't look too good for that trend now, does it?

With the Altador Cup only having existed for 4 full years, with its current win/loss system fully implemented for only 3 years (meaning only 2 years are really statistically valid for trend analysis), I doubt we can draw many conclusions from the championship trends we've seen so far. This might become more significant in the future, but for now I personally think we should wait for more data.

 

Additionally, Shenkuu's present fanbase is pretty slow-starting (as they were in previous years), so I'm not really surprised that they're ranking low in round one. It's highly likely that they'll eventually rally when and where it counts.

 

Exhibit B: If you look at the event results, Shenkuu currently suffers from 11 draws, by far the most of any team. That's nearly half of their events. I've never seen a sport where draws were this easy to come by.

With the massive number of participants, scores, and other data they have to deal with, it's only to be expected that TNT's outcome algorithm would need a fairly significant draw tolerance to get any drawn results at all.

 

Exhibit C: Shenkuu's Mirsha Grelinek is currently the 6th ranking goal scorer in the league, and Haunted Woods' Zo Junior is 8th. Odd, considering their teams are ranked 12th and 16th respectively. Even more odd considering that Haunted Woods has yet to win a game of Yooyuball. You may argue that he may be one decent offensive player on an otherwise lacking team, but they use the 1+3 configuration, so in fact he is the only offensive player on a highly defensive team.

Scorer ranking is determined by the average goals per game ratio of the associated players, so it really doesn't have as much to do with a team's ranking or performance as the preferences of the team's supporters. Most experienced Yooyuball players (the ones which probably have the most effect on the GPG ratio) will pick a preferred formation, use the closest player to immediately grab the Yooyu, run up to the goal, and score, over and over again for every single game (I do this with Dorina Hals in Maraqua's offensive formation). Being the only offensive player in the default formation on his team, Zo Junior is a likely pick for preferred player, so it's not too surprising that he's fairly high on the top scorers list.

 

Exhibit D: The Altador Cup Officials apparently feel the need to shroud themselves in secrecy. We as the general populous are not privy to the methods used to decide the victor of an individual event, nor are we notified of any actual scores, simply a win/lose/draw status.

This is a debatable point, and while I disagree with the lack of openness seen in this respect, I can certainly understand the motivation behind it. No program, algorithm, or other methodology can be completely bulletproof - whatever system the officials use to determine victories and defeats must have its weaknesses. There have to be some kinks in the system, some circumstances where it could be pushed into becoming unfair or just plain failing (I saw no end of these when I was brainstorming for this topic). By keeping it a secret, the officials are protecting the system from people who might seek to exploit it.

 

Ultimately, I don't think rigging Altador Cup results would be worth the trouble, and it's not *that* difficult to create a fair system. :)

[hrtbrk]

Last year Grelinek was the most valuable player~ So she gets a plushie.

If you notice, the team captains of the winning team all got a toy because they were the MVPs that year.

Interesting, I did not know. Still seems... fishy. lol

*raises The Rock eyebrow*

 

Honestly, I don't think the 'freeloaders' have much to do with anything. Every team has them, sure some more than others, but I think the users sending low scores impede the results.

 

Why doesn't someone start a campaign for next year so that majority joins the same team. Then we'd know for sure :whistle:

[avat0r]

It't wouldn't suprise me if the games are rigged (at least to some extend).

The "curse of the winners" thing makes sense to me, but I have no theory why Shenkuu lost so many players this year...

[antiaircraft]

It't wouldn't suprise me if the games are rigged (at least to some extend).

The "curse of the winners" thing makes sense to me, but I have no theory why Shenkuu lost so many players this year...

There's no evidence to suggest that they did. Shenkuu's performance is pretty consistent with how they've always been. :)

[lovedwallflower]

although TNT themselves have said in several editorials that what we call freeloaders have no effect on the game. they said we should be cheering teammates on instead of booing them for sending low scores bcos it rly doesnt make a difference anyway. so i dnt think we can attribute Shenkuu's plight to freeloaders.

 

what is far more interesting to me, is how suddenly small teams like BV and VP are being ranked in the top tiers. if, as a poster above suggested, this is to encourage the notion of sportsmanship and the 'we're all winners' mindset, that is rigging of the most unacceptable kind. in real life, it is on rare occasion that the underdog wins and we shouldnt be giving the impression to kids that as long as you play, someday you will win. Unfortunately, life isnt abt participating, its abt beating yr competition and rising to the top.

[antiaircraft]

what is far more interesting to me, is how suddenly small teams like BV and VP are being ranked in the top tiers. if, as a poster above suggested, this is to encourage the notion of sportsmanship and the 'we're all winners' mindset, that is rigging of the most unacceptable kind. in real life, it is on rare occasion that the underdog wins and we shouldnt be giving the impression to kids that as long as you play, someday you will win. Unfortunately, life isnt abt participating, its abt beating yr competition and rising to the top.

Looking at the standings of those teams and the match-ups they've had so far, it seems fairly reasonable to say that their success can be attributed to a not-too-tough schedule and lots of hard work. :yes:

[briliegh]

I'd like to believe that the cup was not rigged :/ But I know a lot of people joined Shenkuu this year because they figured that Shenkuu would win first because of the repeating pattern. I kind of think that TNT saw what people were saying on the boards, realized it was true, and made it harder for Shenkuu to come out on top. Then again, that could just be me. Maybe we didn't have great/dedicated players this year. I know I sure didn't play as much as I had planned to.

I would feel much more comfortable if we would be able to see exact scores. It might motivate players to try harder.

 

 

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