Tyranu Evavu Thoughts.

[silent_bard]

So I've always been a fan of Tyranu Evavu, since it has a fun statistics component. In any case I wanted to discuss some of my hypotheses about the inner workings of the game, as well as an interesting question.

1. If the correct guess is "evavu" then the next card will be less than the current card.
   
2. If the correct guess is "tyranu" then the next card will be greater than or equal to the current card.
   
3. A card will only be seen once per game.
   

These rules follow the standard guides, except the equivalent card part. A long time ago I remember running into the weird edge case of losing when choosing "evavu" for an ace because the revealed card was an ace, which was really frustrating at the time. This changes the statistics slightly, so that there are generally better odds to pick "tyranu" for 8 because there are actually more cards that will result in a correct guess (27 vs 24).

 

So, my interesting question is what is the 52nd card compared to? Would it be the first card? What do you guys think?

[Emily]

The theory is almost identical to counting cards in blackjack. Increased and decreased probabilities based on the total cards played thus far. It's not so much turn-based (if this one is higher, the next one will be lower) but collectively based on what had been played thus far in the game.

 

Using the blackjack model, depending how good your memory is, the 52nd card would either be high/low or the only one of x group from y groups that hasn't been played yet.

[silent_bard]

The theory is almost identical to counting cards in blackjack. Increased and decreased probabilities based on the total cards played thus far. It's not so much turn-based (if this one is higher, the next one will be lower) but collectively based on what had been played thus far in the game.

 

Using the blackjack model, depending how good your memory is, the 52nd card would either be high/low or the only one of x group from y groups that hasn't been played yet.

 

But at this point you have seen all of the cards. Since it is the 52nd guess. So does it loop back to the first card? What is this guess being compared with, is my point.

[miemieh]

It has to be the very last card.

And maybe you're right, because the first card, is the only one you didn't guess, it already lays there.

Here, I made you a easy counter.

Delete the cardnumber you have and you can see easily what the chances are, and wich card is over at the end.

2 2 2 2 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 4

5 5 5 5 6 6 6 6 7 7 7 7

8 8 8 8 9 9 9 9 10 10 10 10

J J J J Q Q Q Q K K K K

A A A A