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predicting price fall/rise


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I remembered that the first time i bought my peophin time traveller jacket, i paid 500k for it (a few days after it is released). snatched one and sold it for 200k a few days after i bought one.. and to my surprise when i do the price check, the price had dropped to a jawdropping 30k :/ i dont see this coming...

 

And a few days after someone told he got pirate draik egg, i made a panic purchase for the fullset of forgotten map for 700k, and.. you know what happened to the price now..

 

Any good advice predicting price fall / rise?

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Waiting is probably the best thing you could do (and the only advice I can give).

 

Take the Forgotten Shore map for example. Over the weeks, it has become easily available to the extend that the price dropped drastically too; you can get it now at less than 5000np (for each piece) when it first used to be 50,000np or something.

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Yeah, don't buy immediatley. Wait 3 days to a week atleast.

 

And with things like the forgotten shore of plot prizes, get them without paying np then sell immediatley. If you're a collector you can buy another one later.

Thats what I do with AC prizes and with the forgotten shore. I make about 2mil each AC, and I made like 400k off the the forgotten shore.

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Perhaps you should have checked the Forgotton Shore Map trading thread. Many users are willing to give away their extra pieces or trade for the ones they don't already have (which I think is a very big clue to the worth of the map now). Either way, don't make rash decisions - if it's too good to be true then it probably is. Double check or make a thread here to get a second opinion if you're unsure.

 

You can't "pretend" the map set is worth 700k, every single piece is being sold for 4,500nps or less in shop wiz. Just because that guy got a draik egg doesn't mean you should go out and get yourself the map. You should have instead bought the draik egg from him and then look into the map. It's like the secret lab map, it's up in the air - you might get lucky and get zapped a MSPP or something you could only dream of having or you can end up with crap every time like I do.

 

Just remember to do your research and think about it. What gives out map pieces? Did neopets say they would remove the the new daily? If the item is THAT amazing, would someone bother trying to sell it for less if it's so indemand? Look at prices of krawk and draiks, their prices are still extremely high despite the influx of krawks and definitely very ridged pricing. No one will sell it for less because someone is guarenteed to want a draik or a krawk. It's not like there's 100 people selling it.

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Heres a. Good rule: suppy and demand.

 

Supply: How many are in existence? How many will be put in existence? When was it given out? Whats the rarity? Is it retired? Is it in a set? When was the release? All good questions to ask. There are exceptions, but the fewer there are, the less going to be, the rarer they are, the older and retired, will increase the price. And vice versa.

 

Demand: Do people like it? What is it? Does it dissopear after use? Does it help for a trophy? Does it have a use for an avatar? Also good questons to ask. Demand is a little more complicated than supply, so you can ask people those questions when you stumble upon an item or deal.

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