grizzlybehr Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 I was curious to see if certain luck/chance Neopets games give a positive return for playing. After calculating, Grarrl Keno odds were poor. The worst bet was to select 8 numbers, and receive .03NP to every 1NP you spend. The best possible bet was to select 9 eggs; .29NP to every 1NP. (Complete odds in table below). # payout per NP 2 eggs 0.292721519 3 eggs 0.151533593 4 eggs 0.174603877 5 eggs 0.138980773 6 eggs 0.061203953 7 eggs 0.056948143 8 eggs 0.03120802 9 eggs 0.294516197 10 eggs 0.2485856 If anyone is interested, I will calculate the payouts of other chance-based Neopets games. Just reply with your request. Disclaimer: Many games cannot have odds calculated (slots for example). However, most can be ~estimated~ with enough data. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yozora Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 I'm a big fan of the luck-games since I feel I have more of a chance to get on a high score with those than a flash game. I've gotten Dice-a-Roo, Scorchy Slots, Bilge Dice Streak, Tyranu Evavu, Double or Nothing, and just recently Neggsweeper (that's only partially luck/chance). I considered going with Keno but felt so unlikely to happen I just never bothered. Knowing the odds of the Keno have lessened my hopes even further. I suppose that's why if you DO manage to win, you can really win big. That NP pay out is really tempting. I know you said slots are kind of hard to decipher odds, but I had something happen that I believe is so unlikely, I want to get an approximation of it. When I was playing Scorchy Slots, I randomly got the jackpot.... and the HOLDS appeared along with it. In the end, I managed to get the jackpot not twice, but three times since the holds stayed another round. What could possibly be the chances of that happening? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Emily Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 I play keno only for the avatar. For me, the res of those games tend to go in bursts of luck for me, especially the slots. One day, I'll pull 10 times and not win a thing. The next day, I'll pull 10 times and win 1000+ points 8 out of the 10 pulls. it's weird. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
grizzlybehr Posted January 4, 2011 Author Share Posted January 4, 2011 I'm a big fan of the luck-games since I feel I have more of a chance to get on a high score with those than a flash game. I've gotten Dice-a-Roo, Scorchy Slots, Bilge Dice Streak, Tyranu Evavu, Double or Nothing, and just recently Neggsweeper (that's only partially luck/chance). I considered going with Keno but felt so unlikely to happen I just never bothered. Knowing the odds of the Keno have lessened my hopes even further. I suppose that's why if you DO manage to win, you can really win big. That NP pay out is really tempting. I know you said slots are kind of hard to decipher odds, but I had something happen that I believe is so unlikely, I want to get an approximation of it. When I was playing Scorchy Slots, I randomly got the jackpot.... and the HOLDS appeared along with it. In the end, I managed to get the jackpot not twice, but three times since the holds stayed another round. What could possibly be the chances of that happening? After 110 plays, I saw 18 bags on all of the squares. Using a "bell curve", the probability of a jackpot without using any holds is between 8.53715 E-06 with a 3.76675E-05 margin of error. That is about 1 in every 110000, but the error of this estimate is still very large! Odds could be as poor as 1 in 1273741, or as good as 1 in 26525. The estimated payout per game from only NP prizes and faeries is 3.02NP per game. This estimate does not include the jackpot and the maps. (I really don't have any idea what maps are given out, so I don't know what value to enter into the calculation.) If the Jackpot and/or Map Prizes are sufficiently valuable, the average payout can increase above 5NP per game. For example, if the jackpot is 150000, and the average map price is 10000NP, the average payout is 8.76NP. However, you could still go bankrupt playing the game before you win those big prizes. As for your question about the probability of 3 jackpots in a row... I cannot say. I did not get enough holds while I was playing to get a good statistical estimate. Still, I am amazed that it happened. I will post other probabilities on my pet page when I get some time... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whattawiseguy Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Wow! I never realized how lucky I was to get the Keno avatar after two plays... I never tried again after that. I honestly don't play luck games unless they have an avatar. Still trying for the bilge dice ones :) Thanks for this! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Octopus Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Not sure if this counts but I'd like to know the probability of getting a Fish Negg during a game of Neggsweeper. I only play on the Hard difficulty. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
grizzlybehr Posted January 7, 2011 Author Share Posted January 7, 2011 Not sure if this counts but I'd like to know the probability of getting a Fish Negg during a game of Neggsweeper. I only play on the Hard difficulty. I can get an estimate, but I don't have the patience to do all the trial games today... I'll give an update over the weekend. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roxi Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 In my opinion, luck games are only worth the avatars. Unless it's something like Cheat! where you're basically guaranteed to win. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Octopus Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 I can get an estimate, but I don't have the patience to do all the trial games today... I'll give an update over the weekend. Thanks, and take your time! ^Cheat! involves a bit of skill in my opinion. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yozora Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 ^^Scorchy slots is worth it if you don't mind it being a little boring. At least every other day upon maxing out my spins, I get at least one fairy or treasure map. While the fairies haven't bee profitable for a bit, the maps are good money all the time. Dicearoo is the same thing since the food items you get from it often give you a nice sum of change. I usually get around 5k of stuff, but it depends on what food you get. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fever Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Personally, I totally steer clear of luck and chance games! Not only do I often have bad luck when it comes to gambles (example A: saving up money for a special run at Breyerfest, just to get to that point in line to see they are sold out for that hour <_< ), but I just don't feel comfortable betting in extremes... Food club is one thing, where there are odds and you can use betting guides. But stuff like Scorchy Slots, Bilge Dice, and so on, don't have guides because they are (for the most part) random... Of course i'm saving up 13mil so I'm a little bit of a tight-wad at the moment. I bet my opinion on gambling on Neo will change post-Draik xD Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Octopus Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 ^^Interesting, maybe I should try Scorchy Slots. That or you're a very lucky person :). I have terrible luck on Dice-a-Roo. I almost always die the instant I reach the yellow dice. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
m0ose_ Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Interesting topic. I like Dice-a-Roo for the food items, but I don't usually bother with luck games (although after reading this thread, am tempted by Scorchy Slots) because gambling is addictive and stuff. I guess the stock market is like gambling, but you can't ever lose at it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
picky_nut Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 That's really interesting... But I tend not to play those games, I too afraid to lose my money and win nothing... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zoologynerd Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 I'm a big fan of the luck-games since I feel I have more of a chance to get on a high score with those than a flash game. I've gotten Dice-a-Roo, Scorchy Slots, Bilge Dice Streak, Tyranu Evavu, Double or Nothing, and just recently Neggsweeper (that's only partially luck/chance). I considered going with Keno but felt so unlikely to happen I just never bothered. Knowing the odds of the Keno have lessened my hopes even further. I suppose that's why if you DO manage to win, you can really win big. That NP pay out is really tempting. I know you said slots are kind of hard to decipher odds, but I had something happen that I believe is so unlikely, I want to get an approximation of it. When I was playing Scorchy Slots, I randomly got the jackpot.... and the HOLDS appeared along with it. In the end, I managed to get the jackpot not twice, but three times since the holds stayed another round. What could possibly be the chances of that happening? nice! with keno, i think i just did quick pick then kept refreshing. i read that on a guide and it worked for me (to get the avvie at least) ^"I guess the stock market is like gambling, but you can't ever lose at it." actually you can. in rare occasions stocks completely bankrupt. but thats highly unlikely, esp if you keep lots of stocks, you have better chances of making a profit on one and itll balance out even if one does tank. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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