SuperAttackPea Posted November 3, 2011 Share Posted November 3, 2011 some petpage lists it at 0.5% but I think it's too high (there would be way more draiks if this was true). So is there another way to find out the probability? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wembly Posted November 3, 2011 Share Posted November 3, 2011 I think that is definitely too high. There seem to be about 1 or 2 new draik eggs appearing daily. I don't know the exact number of players that have access to the daily shore but right this second there are 13000 players online (and that is just this second, so daily there are certainly more). Even assuming 1/2 of everyone on right now has access and 2 draiks appear a day, that would be 2/6000 which equals 0.00033 which equals .033% and I'm pretty sure there are way more than 6000 people doing the daily so that would make it even less. And .03% is a full order of magnitude less than their state .5% so case and point, your odds are indeed very slim. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Welcome Back Apathy Posted November 3, 2011 Share Posted November 3, 2011 I'm curious as to what time period that 0.5% refers to. 0.5% chance of you getting it that day? Ever getting it? (That is, only 1 in 200 accounts will ever get one.) Either way, the odds are miniscule. Calculating them exactly is impossible. Just know that it's very small, and don't expect it. That way if you DO get one, you'll be ecstatic, rather than disappointed if you don't get one. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wembly Posted November 3, 2011 Share Posted November 3, 2011 Just so you know, probabilities DO NOT increase with time in regards to dailies. It's just like the lottery. You have exactly the same chance of getting one one day as the next. Meaning someone who already won a draik egg has the same exact probability of getting another egg as you do of getting your first egg. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SuperAttackPea Posted November 3, 2011 Author Share Posted November 3, 2011 1/200 is actually pretty high if 10,000+ are online every day I just saw a person on neoboards saying they got 2 draik eggs from forgotten shore so far but I have yet to get anything good Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wembly Posted November 3, 2011 Share Posted November 3, 2011 1 in 200 in entirely too high, and you should probably take what people say on the neoboards with a grain of salt. While that person may have gotten 2 eggs, a lot of people on the neoboards tend to troll or exagerate just to make other people feel worse about not getting anything good. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jeanie Posted November 3, 2011 Share Posted November 3, 2011 I personally think that is too low. I know I have gotten a draik egg, and I see them all over the place now, so I think its becoming more and more uncommon, and I think it will drive prices down. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SuperAttackPea Posted November 5, 2011 Author Share Posted November 5, 2011 You must have been very lucky. All the people I know have yet to get a draik egg or krawk mp Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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