grizzlybehr Posted May 4, 2011 Share Posted May 4, 2011 I have too much time on my hands... Last summer, I needed to create a statistical simulation, so I used the Altador Cup data for a sample project. The initial results are still relevent. Follow the link, and you will find tables. In each table, you can look up how many times (out of 300) each team finished 1st, 2nd, 3rd, etc. There is one table for each event (YYB, SOSD, etc.) and one table for overall results. It is interesting to note that the simulation picks Krawk Island to be the most likely winner, but that Lost Desert has a slightly higher average rank. The top five teams by highest average ranking are: 1. Lost Desert 2. Krawk Island 3. Kreludor 4. Darigan 5. Shenkuu If this simulation garners any interest, I can post other information (probabilities of X wins/draws/loses against Y, day-to-day statistical rankings, team makeup information, etc.) Reply with any questions, criticisms, or information requests. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vivies Posted May 4, 2011 Share Posted May 4, 2011 That's cool. Very interesting. Nice to see Lost Desert up there. I still haven't decided if that's who I'm going for this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Dude Posted May 5, 2011 Share Posted May 5, 2011 Yeah, these results are somewhat interesting, but this model doesn't really take into account the regular shifting of players. LD, as many well know, is predicted to take some sort of decline in the ACVI. If anything, this more so resembles an average team placement within recent years (which it is if I read it right). And I'm guessing these were what you were using when you submitted those predictions earlier? :P Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
grizzlybehr Posted May 5, 2011 Author Share Posted May 5, 2011 Yeah, these results are somewhat interesting, but this model doesn't really take into account the regular shifting of players. LD, as many well know, is predicted to take some sort of decline in the ACVI. If anything, this more so resembles an average team placement within recent years (which it is if I read it right). And I'm guessing these were what you were using when you submitted those predictions earlier? :P It's true that players tend to shift away from the prior year's champion. The simulation was designed specifically to eliminate this error. Any other player shifting is included as part of the random variations. Regardless, the simulation still picks LD as the best performer. I couldn't believe it myself. Of course, I do hope that a model resembles an average team placement. If you don't want models based on average team placement... I can certainly make one where Faerieland wins the Altador Cup, and they Yankees are the worst team in baseball. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Dude Posted May 5, 2011 Share Posted May 5, 2011 It's true that players tend to shift away from the prior year's champion. The simulation was designed specifically to eliminate this error. Any other player shifting is included as part of the random variations. Regardless, the simulation still picks LD as the best performer. I couldn't believe it myself. Of course, I do hope that a model resembles an average team placement. If you don't want models based on average team placement... I can certainly make one where Faerieland wins the Altador Cup, and they Yankees are the worst team in baseball. Actually, I'd really like that. I hate the Yankees, and anything fact or fiction with them doing poorly would brighten my day. :D But average team placement doesn't do much for me. I'd prefer things anticipating player preferences, since unlike real world sports, carry more weight. Though, I do find these predictions interesting and there really hasn't been all the much evidence that says LD wouldn't win. I'd be quite interested in seeing LD take gold. though I'd be more interested in Faerieland winning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
grizzlybehr Posted May 5, 2011 Author Share Posted May 5, 2011 I hate the Yankees, and anything fact or fiction with them doing poorly would brighten my day. :D You are my new best friend. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Noog Posted May 5, 2011 Share Posted May 5, 2011 SOTAC really messed up your data, lol. I'm surprised that Kreludor made it above Darigan Citadel... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
melnick Posted May 14, 2011 Share Posted May 14, 2011 You are my new best friend. lol You 2 are my new worst enemies! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
:)Doc Posted May 14, 2011 Share Posted May 14, 2011 How did you even get that data? :guiltysmiley: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
grizzlybehr Posted May 15, 2011 Author Share Posted May 15, 2011 How did you even get that data? :guiltysmiley: I just plugged in round by round data for last year, plus standings for the past 4 cups. The entire set of results come from a simulation using the random errors and averages from the data. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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