Maxx Oris Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Hey everyone! I'm thinking of starting a new project and wanted to post here to see what people thought of the idea - and maybe find some helpers and future testers. I'm thinking of building a site to track Neopets random events, returns from random-related Neopets games to see if there is some sort of pattern in the results that changed by month and whatnot. My current line of thinking is that it will be user registration based. People will post up their random events (and results from random games too, maybe) as they happen and specify location, time and what the event was. The users will be able to decide if others can see their listings or not but the listings will all count towards the end results - which will hopefully identify what events are most likely to happen and when. I would also like to add something there for the people who spend time posting of course, tracking the items they've found as well as the amount of points they have gained and lost via random events on a per month basis. It could be quite interesting and if anyone has any comments or idea or just wants to help - let me know! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dr_gnorbu Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 I think you need an unrealistic amount of data to make even a single conclusion, since there are a lot of variables (including variables you don't track). But if you give it try, good luck! :) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maxx Oris Posted January 10, 2011 Author Share Posted January 10, 2011 I've worked on bigger projects before, believe me there isn't as much as it first appears, reducibility is key here - and a lot of the data is highly reducible. If you assign each random event type of a number, e.g. Something has happened!Congratulations, [username], you just found [points] Neopoints on the floor!!! Could be assigned to a random event with an ID of 1. Along with the ID of the event and who recorded it, you would list the time and date and location. This makes only 4 pieces of data that are needed per event - which is actually quite small. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dr_gnorbu Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 How do you know they don't work with variables like; time you're online, certain second of a minute in combination with the third letter of your active pet, age of account, amount of items in your inventory or sdb, etc. I don't expect the random event generator to be simply based on the 4 pieces you want to track, but on a combination of more variables. But maybe I'm wrong... good luck! ;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maxx Oris Posted January 10, 2011 Author Share Posted January 10, 2011 It could be. But somehow I doubt that - overly complex randomization algorithms tend to be less effective than simple ones due to complex mathematical reasons. While it could be - those sorts of things could be explored if the simple ideas fails. Those could certainly be worth exploring too. You have a point. But I've never seen any statistics to show that older accounts are more likely to get random events nor better luck on the games of chance. Has anyone? With enough people on board with this idea, it should be possible to explore all the above ideas. It'll be interesting to see if we can figure out how TNT makes the radom events work. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Anime Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 While this is a neat idea, I get the feeling Random Events are just that- random. It's far more likely that whenever you load a page, some bit of code hidden away on TNT's server runs and you have a certain chance of getting an RE point blank (say, I don't know, 1 in 200 for example). If it comes up saying "yes they get an RE" one is chosen at random with each RE having a base rarity, so to speak, with the pointless ones ("A passing blue Poogle says Hi!") being low rarity (common) and things with good items ("Jacko the Phantom painter gives you a Faerie Paint Brush!") being high rarity (rare). And further, if there's an item, one is randomly selected from the list of items avalible for that RE. So yeah, while this is a cool idea- and feel free to give it a whirl anyways- it's extremely unlikely that there's a rhyme or reason to when REs appear. If anything this would be better suited to determining the true rarity of each RE, or the median NP gained/lost to a specific RE. In the very least, that's how I, as a Computer Science major, would set it up. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maxx Oris Posted January 10, 2011 Author Share Posted January 10, 2011 Randomness is usually a slight of hand when it comes to programming - there isn't a true random, only approximations. I spent some time a few years back building a random number generator and I got one working pretty good... though with enough iterations it always made a pattern in the end. I like the idea of using it to determine the rarity of an event and the loss/gain. Those would be useful. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Anime Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Yes, true, but in this case the pattern would be present more in the length of time between each and every RE in Neopia rather than the length of time between the REs a specific user or set of users get. Not something you'd manage to confirm based on any data you'd get even if you managed to record every last RE by everyone on the forums. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cornflakes Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 I think it would be awesome to have an RE tracker! Having said that, to be bluntly honest, I probably wouldn't actually participate in it, as it would require paying attention to times and details of REs. So having such a tracker would require a lot of user participation, and we know how lazy people are these days. :D Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maxx Oris Posted January 10, 2011 Author Share Posted January 10, 2011 I think it would be awesome to have an RE tracker! Having said that, to be bluntly honest, I probably wouldn't actually participate in it, as it would require paying attention to times and details of REs. So having such a tracker would require a lot of user participation, and we know how lazy people are these days. :D I'm planning on making it quite simple, a copy and paste job. Hopefully that will help encourage people to participate. @Anime: Yes. I agree with you there. Still. It would be fun to try. If nothing else it'll be an interesting programming project to play around with. It could turn into something useful. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
antiaircraft Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Well, my answer to that would be: why not? :P It sounds like a fun thing to do, and who knows, maybe there are patterns in TNT's randomisation that they don't know about. It might be possible to build browser add-ons to make it easier for users to participate in the study as well. I like to think TNT has some random staffer chained up in the basement with a button for each RE and a light that flashes on every pageload. xD Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maxx Oris Posted January 11, 2011 Author Share Posted January 11, 2011 Well, my answer to that would be: why not? :P It sounds like a fun thing to do, and who knows, maybe there are patterns in TNT's randomisation that they don't know about. It might be possible to build browser add-ons to make it easier for users to participate in the study as well. I like to think TNT has some random staffer chained up in the basement with a button for each RE and a light that flashes on every pageload. xD Shhh. They'll send the meepits for revealing their secrets. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anita s Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 This would actually be quite awesome, but don't you think they are called Random Events for a reason? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maxx Oris Posted January 16, 2011 Author Share Posted January 16, 2011 Lots of things are called random - however in my experience few are. The fact that random events are more likely when wearing the birthday theme for example suggests there is some influence there. What else influences it I wonder? I've started work on the site. Though it will likely take me a time to get it ready for public use - though anyone interested in helping if free to do so. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
antiaircraft Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Sounds awesome! I'd offer my assistance, but considering your programming experience level I doubt you'll have much need of it. xD Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maxx Oris Posted January 17, 2011 Author Share Posted January 17, 2011 Sounds awesome! I'd offer my assistance, but considering your programming experience level I doubt you'll have much need of it. xD Nonsense. I'm always in need of help! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
antiaircraft Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Fair enough. I guess I'll see what I can do. :) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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